The new week will start off mostly cloudy, breezy and mild for Acadiana, with an active pattern leading to showers, storms, a possible severe weather threat, and some locally heavy rains into Wednesday.
A series of weak low pressure systems strung along a nearly stationary front boundary to of northwest will keep milder southerly winds flowing across Acadiana over the next couple of days.
A weak disturbance passing through the region overnight will likely spark some light shower activity with rain chances near 40-50% through daybreak Monday.
Lows for Monday morning will be some 10 degree milder than Sunday morning with readings in the low-mid 60s.
Monday will be mostly cloudy, breezy and milder with a few widely scattered showers (20%) possible.
High temperatures Monday will climb into the mid-70s.
Expect another breezy day Monday with southwesterly winds near 12-20 mph with a few gusts to 25 mph...it shouldn't be as gusty Monday as compared to what we observed Sunday.
Moving into Tuesday, scattered showers will become more likely (60% or better) but the day shouldn't be complete washout.
Tuesday highs will warm into the spring-like mid-upper 70s.
It get's rather interesting Tuesday night into Wednesday as an area of low pressure develops in the Western Gulf of Mexico and then heads east-northeastward through Southern Louisiana.
This will bring high rain chances, thunderstorms, the threat of severe weather, and perhaps some locally heavy rainfall to the Acadiana Wednesday.
The ultimate track of the low pressure system will determine where the severe weather and heavier rain threats will be greatest,
For now, the Storm Prediction Center has the region hatched in for a "marginal risk" of severe storms late Tuesday, increasing to a "slight risk" Wednesday.
It appears that an "all-mode" event could be possible Wednesday with a few supercell storms capable of producing damaging winds, perhaps and isolated tornado and some hail but when and where is yet to be determined.
At this point, the position of the low pressure system will be key, with areas southeast of the low in the warm sector, which could be along and south of the I-10 corridor most vulnerable to severe weather.
The threat of heavier rains may run a little north of the same zone with latest model guidance suggesting the possibility of 2-3" of rain Wednesday, but localized totals could be higher to the north and perhaps a little lower too the south...as a result, some localized street flooding could be possible.
The whole mess will be moving eastward into Wednesday night with lingering clouds Thursday eventually clearing into Thursday evening.
Some good-looking weather will follow with sunshine Friday, followed by fair to partly cloudy skies and seasonably cool temperatures into the weekend.
Showers will likely return into early-mid next week. See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Climate Notes for this Winter: With today the meteorological start of spring, I've crunched the numbers for December, January & February confirming indeed it was a mild winter for Acadiana.
Based on Lafayette's mean temperatures, December was 3.0 degrees above normal, January a whopping 5.6 degrees above normal and February 2 degrees above normal, but 5.5 degrees cooler than last February!
In Lafayette we saw one light freeze in December, none in January, and one light freeze in February.
Interestingly enough, our coldest weather came in the fall when we saw three freezes in November with the coldest reading of the "cold" season at 25 degrees on November 13th!