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Breezy, warm Tuesday; severe weather threat toward Wednesday morning

Posted at 4:47 PM, Apr 27, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-27 23:37:36-04

Acadiana remains on track for a stormy period very late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as our next weather-maker could bring a lower end severe weather threat to the area.

In the near term, expect fair and pleasant conditions across the area through Tuesday morning with lows holding closer to the lower 60s.

Tuesday will become a breezy day while clouds gradually increase through the afternoon.

Highs Tuesday will be in the low-mid 80s.

Look for breezy southeasterly winds near 10-20 mph with a few gusts as high as 25-30 mph in the afternoon.

There will be a slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm, but the best rain chances will hold off until well after midnight Tuesday night through roughly midday Wednesday.

A strong upper disturbance located in the Pacific Northwest Monday will dive rapidly southeastward over the next 36-48 hours, bringing with it an excellent chance of storms and a substantial severe weather threat across Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas Tuesday.

A broken line of strong to possibly severe storms will head southeastward into Louisiana overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Acadiana hatched in for a marginal to slight risk of severe storms through 7 am Wednesday, with the highest risk assessed over the northwestern portions of the Acadiana area.

That risk drops to a marginal level for Acadiana beyond 7 am Wednesday, but the SPC may upgrade some spots to a slight risk in later forecasts.

The main threats to Acadiana will be for storms that could produce isolated pockets of damaging winds and/or some hail...it's too early to bet as to whether we may see a severe weather "watch" in Acadiana ahead of when storms arrive pre-dawn Wednesday.

Fortunately we do need the rain, and following the latest European Model guidance, rainfall totals should be in the 0.5 inch to 1.5 inch range with the possibility of isolated higher amounts greater than 2".

Well see what the forecast data looks like Tuesday for a more accurate assessment of rainfall potential.

Fortunately the storms will be moving along so no significant flooding is anticipated locally.

Showers and thunderstorm activity should end Wednesday afternoon with sun possibly returning by late in the day.

Thereafter, the weather looks outstanding with plenty of sun, low humidity and temperatures several degree below normal Thursday and Friday...especially at night when more 50s are expected for at least a couple of nights.

Warmer, more humid conditions should return this weekend into early next week but the weather pattern will remain fair.

Next chance of rain and some storms may return mid-next week.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

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