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A few strong to severe storms possible Monday

Posted: 5:02 PM, Oct 20, 2019
Updated: 2019-10-20 19:59:18-04
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After a warm and mostly dry weekend changes are coming to the forecast as we enter the new work week as a cold front will swing through Acadiana on Monday.

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The good news is the front does not look to arrive until about 10 am so the morning commute looks good just on the warm and muggy side with maybe a few light sprinkles.

Most models agree the front will sweep across Acadiana starting in the northwest portion about 9-10 am and reaching Lafayette between 12-1 before eventually pushing to the southeast during the afternoon with most of the rain done by the drive home.

As this front slides through Acadiana there is a low end chance that a few storms could be on the strong to severe side with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the main threat, especially for areas north of the interstate.

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What should help to limit the severe threat for southern portions of Acadiana is another area of showers could slide out of the Gulf and over south Louisiana just ahead of the front and rob some of the energy from the storms but this could lead to slightly higher rainfall amounts and minor street flooding.

The tornado threat looks to be nearly 0 but I wouldn't completely rule out the chance for maybe a brief spin-up tornado closer towards Alexandria up to Monroe.

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Behind the front fall weather returns to Acadiana with lows dipping down into the mid 50s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday and Wednesday look to be beautiful late October days with lots of sunshine and highs in the low to mid 70s although it will be chilly at night as lows Wednesday morning will be in the upper 40s to near 50.

Thursday clouds and a few showers will slide back over the region in advance of our next system.

However, the long range models are showing 2 completely different solutions for this next system on Friday.

Sunday's run of the European model has a couple systems riding out of southeast Texas and over Acadiana producing rounds of showers and a few storms on both Friday and Saturday with the rain finally moving out Saturday evening.

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Because the European has this system coming from the southwest temperatures don't really fall behind the front and hold in the 70s for next week.

As for the GFS it brings in another strong cold front coming out of the Great Plains and swinging through the region Friday morning with skies clearing up by Friday evening followed by breezy and much cooler temperatures for next weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

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Right now I am leaning more towards the European solution in my 10 day but we will have to see how things turn out and if the models come to a more similar forecast in the coming days.

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