The radar is quiet this morning after some big thunderstorms moved across the area Monday evening. Temperatures are warm, and the air is sticky. Some fog formation is possible for a few hours ahead of sunrise this morning.
A ridge of high pressure is currently centered over the Florida panhandle, extending westward into southeast Louisiana. A trough is digging across the Midwest and will continue drifting southeast. A front is draped across the ArkLaTex, and this front will slowly move southward across the area, eventually reaching the Gulf waters by Wednesday night. All of this will keep our area generally unsettled, with the chances for scattered showers and storms remaining in the 40-50% range for the next two days.
Expect temperatures to climb to near 90 degrees this afternoon with heat index values around 95. Higher rain chances will be over central Louisiana, and eastern sections. Wednesday, we'll see the higher rain chances at the coast, while northern sections will start drying out. Highs Wednesday will hold in the upper 80s. Once the front moves offshore and washes out, some slightly cooler and drier air will be with us for Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Another front is expected to push in on Saturday with another chance for showers and storms. Saturday's front will have a better cool air mass behind it, so Sunday, and next week is looking great with sunshine and temperatures in the mid 80s.
Even though we're still just over two weeks out from the start of hurricane season, there might be something to watch off the east coast late this week. Models are suggesting a surface low may spin along the cold front and push into the Atlantic waters off the Carolina coast. This wouldn't be unusual, as many of our "pre-season" systems have developed in this part of the world.
In case you missed it, the National Hurricane Center published last week that a system in January that developed off the northeast coast was indeed a "subtropical storm". Although this storm will remain unnamed, it will be considered the first "system" of the 2023 Hurricane Season. Therefore, if we get any development along the east coast, it will be designated "Tropical Depression #2", but if it gets a name, it'll still be Arlene.
If any of the names sound familiar, remember name lists are reused every sixth year, with some names retired, usually if they're major catastrophes. 2023's list is the same from the record setting 2005 hurricane season. The names Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma were all retired from 2005.
