Simple short term forecast, but more complicated by Sunday

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Posted at 4:09 AM, Jun 13, 2024
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In the short term the forecast for Acadiana is pretty straightforward, by the end of the weekend though it becomes much more complicated.

So let's get the easy part out of the way.

High pressure is building across Acadiana over the next few days and skies will remain clear as a result.

Heat is going to build headed into the weekend with daytime highs pushing into the upper 90s.

Dewpoints are a little lower Thursday and a light breeze should keep conditions from feeling *too* hot (a very relative term this time of year).

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Friday and Saturday will look similar with the only real difference being an increase in the temperatures.

This brings us to Sunday which is when a wetter pattern is expected to take shape.

Periods of heavy rain are expected Sunday afternoon as we get a surge of tropical moisture moving into the area.

Showers are expected to continue on and off into the week, with Monday looking like the wetter day.

This forecast, however, will largely depend on what happens in the Bay of Campeche.

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The National Hurricane Center has increased the chances of tropical development in that region, and while any low that develops will head into Mexico it's still going to impact our forecast.

A stronger, deeper low will pull and consolidate more of that moisture around it, in that scenario we are probably going to dry out a little faster.

On the other hand, a weaker more unorganized system will keep that moisture in place and lead to more showers around Acadiana.

There's not much model support for extreme precipitation totals so while it will be wet there's no flashing flood alarms out there as of Thursday.

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It's important to remember though that tropical moisture like this can quickly lead to some very heavy showers so localized flooding can always be an issue.

Shower chances will gradually taper off through the middle of the week, but by then we may be looking at our next rain maker.

We'll need to keep an eye on some of the longer range models over the weekend and into next week.