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Showers and storms likely through the weekend

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Posted at 3:51 PM, May 15, 2020
and last updated 2020-05-15 23:41:00-04

We've got the weekend in our sights but unfortunately it looks like the weather is going to be a far cry from cooperative with showers and storms expected through the next couple of days.

A really warm, muggy air mass will continue to dominate Acadiana for the next several days and conditions remain ripe for showers and thunderstorms to flare up once we see a little heating during the day.

The timing of these showers remains problematic with no real forcing mechanism showers could develop anywhere from early Saturday morning through late Saturday evening.

A good illustration of the difficulty with figuring out the timing of the showers is simply looking and comparing two of our short range models and seeing just how much they differ with respect to Saturday's forecast.

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While timing with a set up like this can be tricky it's best not to focus in on one particular model and instead monitor the situation as it unfolds, meaning keep your plans as flexible as possible.

Showers can develop along what is called outflow boundaries, which are created by other storms in different areas, and since this takes place at such a small scale pinpointing exactly where and when is a fool's errand.

In the event of thunderstorms developing there is an outside chance for a storm or two to cross over into severe territory as conditions will be favorable, we saw this play out on Thursday.

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This is a very tropical feeling atmosphere we have here in Acadiana so the next few days will be warm and very muggy, we should be looking at some slightly cooler, drier air as we get into next week.

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