If you're looking for a change in Acadiana's weather pattern, it looks like you'll have to wait at least another week, or more.
A weakness in the upper atmosphere combined with tropical Gulf air will keep a 60-70% daily chance of storms in the forecast through the end of next week...of course some days those rain chances may be closer to 40-50% and others 80-90%.
Models continue to struggle with the pattern thanks mostly in part to the light steering winds and the random nature of mesoscale thunderstorm activity...nature' s chaos.
And like the last week or so, most storms should be well below severe levels, but some could easily produce 40 mph wind gusts, torrential downpours, frequent lightning and the possibility of a few funnel clouds when showers are developing rapidly.
A few brief, "pulse" severe cells may still be possible on any given day into next week.
Then there remains significant rain total model disparities...
Comparing HRRR to GRAF for rain estimates through the next 46 hours...chaotic nature of random storm activity yields the differences.
Average the two models and that would be a fair estimate of rainfall totals for Acadiana through midday Saturday.
Rain chances should be near 70% for both days.
Therefore most of us can expect 1/2-1"+ over the next couple of days, while a few hot spots of 3-5"+ might be possible where storms move the slowest, or repeat over the same areas.
And as I said yesterday, no washout days, just 1-2 hour rain delays...and mostly daytime hours.
While high rain chances won't be going away anytime soon, they may possibly get closer to the 30-40% range perhaps for next weekend.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Meanwhile in the tropics, there are no suspect areas nor any development expected over the next 7 days...perhaps for the rest of the month...fingers crossed!
