Acadiana is in for a multiday, perhaps a multiweek soaking wet weather pattern, that may ultimately bring some flooding conditions to the area...eventually.
The Big Picture: A series of disturbances riding with the sub-tropical jet-stream will interact with a nearly endless supply of Gulf moisture to produce a very good chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on any given day through this weekend and likely into much, if not all next week.
The Weather Prediction Center has Acadiana hatched in for at least a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from now through at least Saturday...with more days and threats likely to increase and follow.
And depending on where and how much falls in the days ahead, we'll probably see those excessive rainfall risks get upgrades down the line.
Texas, particularly Eastern Texas, looks to be most at risk in the near-term...but also in the near term, it could get stormy for Acadiana later tonight...
A cluster of storms across the ArkLaTex and activity building in Eastern Texas Tuesday afternoon may bring showers and storms to Acadiana later tonight.
The Storm Prediction Center does have northwest sections of Acadiana hatched in for a marginal risk of an isolated severe storm, with strong winds the main concern.
The latest HRRR Model is most aggressive storms overnight while the GRAF Model weakens activity a fair bit...for now, we'll lean toward the more aggressive HRRR model but we'll have to watch Power Doppler 3 trends for verification tonight.
Daily rain chances Wednesday through Monday will be in the 70-80% range with some activity lingering into the night, or occasionally lighting up before dawn.
The main story line will be rain rates and rain totals.
Some days we'll probably see just some scattered showers, perhaps a little sun, while others may contain stormy conditions with locally heavy showers and storms.
HRRR Rain totals through the next 48 hours are fairly impressive with 1-3" possible through midday Thursday.
Meanwhile, the GRAF which also represents a more scatter-shot presentation (typical of the randomness of thunderstorms) is yielding similar rain totals through Friday with a few hot spots reach 5-6".
Mind you the 7 day rain totals from the Weather Prediction Center and the latest Euro model are indicating the possibility of 3-6" for most of Acadiana through next Tuesday.
Given these estimates, very isolated hot spots may receive double of the amounts shown...which could ultimately be a foot or more.
And as advertised, this pattern will likely linger past a week and continue most if not all of next week.
So with each passing day, the risk of excessive rainfall and flood risk for Acadiana will increase with possible flood watches before the week is done, and a number of flood warnings that may follow.
Stay with KATC and check out the 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
