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Rundown of the disturbance in the Caribbean

Posted: 7:35 AM, Oct 04, 2018
Updated: 2018-10-04 08:35:10-04

Tropics remain interesting with a disturbance sitting in the Caribbean with movement gradually drifting to the north toward the Gulf of Mexico. There hasn’t been much change to the short term forecast, however, the longer range forecast is one that should be monitored. These are my thoughts on the forecast and what we’ll be watching for, and what you should be watching for the rest of the week.

Invest forecast
The current chance for tropical development from the National Hurricane Center.

There’s a 30% chance for development over the next five days, unchanged from Wednesday, but there does seem to be a little more model support for development. The most notable of which is the EURO which was very bullish on development next week once the wave reaches the Gulf of Mexico. It’s important to keep in mind that this is the first run with this solution and to get more confidence in the forecast.

00Z EURO Model
Snapshot from the Thursday morning EURO Model.
12Z EURO Model
Snapshot from the Wednesday evening EURO Model.

The top graphic is a snapshot from Thursday morning’s model run, which is a noticeable change from Wednesday night’s run (the bottom graphic). This type of swing doesn’t build any sort of confidence, but if the evening models come in looking similar to the morning’s it’ll be something worth watching. I do want to note here as well that the GFS is completely different and more in line with the outlook we were getting on Wednesday.

Regardless of development there will be a major influx of moisture into the Gulf of Mexico which will have an impact on our weather for next week. Currently both Wednesday and Thursday of next week look like they’ll be wet, but this is very much subject to change. Keep an eye on that part of the forecast over the coming days to see how the impacts evolve.

This time of year as fronts begin to get more active traditionally you will see tropical systems take hard turns to the east toward Florida. That’s not to say that always happens but if you’re going to buy into the EURO solution of development then you also need to buy into the EURO solution of a weak front pushing the system to the east.

Tracks of October storms over the last 50 years.

While most storms hook into Florida when they originate in the Caribbean there have been a few exceptions so we should monitor this disturbance. Again it’s still early in the forecast process and while concern is there don’t completely ignore the uncertainty. Stay tuned over the weekend when we will learn a lot more about this potential storm.