A flood threat is taking shape across Acadiana with heavy rain expected over the next couple of days as tropical moisture continues to surge into the area and interact with a front that remains firmly in place.
This combination could lead not just to high rain rates but storms that have the potential to train over and over again raising concern for some of the rain totals Acadiana may be looking at this week.
Adding to the mess is a low that may try and spin off the Texas coast this week increasing the possibility of gusty winds and tropical conditions while also concentrating the rain into certain areas.
Given the complicated set up it's important to remember that this forecast will evolve and change so try not to get hung up on specific numbers, what will remain constant though is that the chance for flooding will exist through the week.
While individual model runs have swung wildly over the last 24 hours there is a pattern that has emerged and that is the belief that there's a high likelihood most of Acadiana will see between 5-10" of rain through Thursday, with hotspots that could double those amounts.
That may seem like a pretty big range but keep in mind the nature of these storms with concentrated areas seeing heavy tropical downpours, pushing rain totals up quickly.
Models continuously hint at the possibility of flooding rain, pushing over the 10" mark somewhere between Lake Charles and Mississippi but can't seem to narrow down on where that corridor will be, or even if it just stays offshore.
Unfortunately we won't know where that corridor will be until we start to see those bands setting up, that will start to get going Wednesday night into Thursday.
The big feature to watch will be the specter of tropical development off the Texas coast which the NHC now has pushed to a 60%, modeling doesn't seem so sure as there appears to be a significant amount of shear.
Regardless of whether this ends up becoming the first named storms is really beside the point as it won't really change the threat of showers, but it could help determine where some of the highest rain totals will end up.
Keep in mind most of the rain will be blown to the east of the low which could see the highest impacts get pushed to the eastern half of the state.
If the low does get it's act together we could see a slight increase in wind damage as squall like conditions will become more probable and even a few isolated tornadoes.
The big take away though remains the chance for flooding, and while not every neighborhood in Louisiana will report flooding conditions it will be important to pay attention to the radar the next few days and actively monitor conditions.
