Fred Continues to Struggle

Strengthening Forecast This Weekend
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Posted at 10:02 AM, Aug 12, 2021
and last updated 2021-08-12 11:02:08-04

After spending a day over mountainous terrain, Fred is a mere circulation with virtually no convection now that it's over water. Some moderate vertical shear is in place near its location, so we're not expecting much redevelopment today.

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Tropical Depression Fred

If Fred can stay away from northern Cuba, and the southern tip of Florida, and manage to get into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, some strengthening is possible. Very warm waters and low wind shear values will await Fred and some new development could happen over the weekend prior to a landfall sometime early Monday morning.

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Thursday 10am - Tropical Depression Fred

Models are still in agreement on track, putting it just east of Apalachicola, Florida with most of the wind and rain effects eastward. As far as intensity, nearly all of the models are pushing a low end tropical storm toward the Florida coast. None of the usual models are calling for a hurricane anymore. The official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Fred's winds to 60mph just before landfall.

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Tropical Depression Fred - Spaghetti Model Plot Thursday Morning

Another tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic Ocean. 95L, as it's now known, will continue on a westward track toward the Leeward Islands into the weekend.

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Invest 95L Spaghetti Model Plot Thursday Morning

This is a similar track to what we've seen with Fred. Both of these systems steered by a huge ridge of high pressure over the central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is putting a 60% chance for development over the next five days. Intensity models are pointing at a strong tropical storm, with several models suggesting hurricane strength in three or four days.

The next position update for T.D. Fred is at 1pm and a full forecast, including a new track and cone, at 4pm.