While today and tomorrow see some suppressed rain chances and slightly warmer temperatures, all eyes are currently on the tropics.
We are closely monitoring an expected tropical disturbance to form in the Eastern Gulf on Wednesday. This would bring with it the chance for a heavy rain event for Acadiana.
Let's get into the details of what we know, and what we don't know, as it's pretty evenly split.
The NHC is monitoring a Low Pressure system who's center of circulation is currently entering onto Florida south of Jacksonville. It's anticipated that a new area of Low Pressure will emerge as it crosses over Florida, back into the Gulf. Prompting that elongated area of orange contour where there is currently a 40% chance of cyclone development over the next 48 hours as well as the next 7 days.
Above is the 1 PM Satellite view of this "system" which is widely disorganized at best. Upper convection is actually getting cut off from the surface Low Pressure as this is written.
Next logical question is, where does the low track next, if/when it forms? Well. It's complicated. This is a current Spaghetti Plot below, however, newer models are already outputting different ideas. So, right now the message to take away is it's likely a storm tracks the coast before meandering as a messy amount of convection into Louisiana, where it is likely to stall, that's where we get our impacts and problems.
Honestly, me, Jobie, doesn't like this image very much so I won't say much more about it, but this is a visual idea of what models thought, prior to not having it quite right, but the idea of a trend that it meanders coastally seems believable.
Let's talk about our real-life impacts if the track does follow the coast and makes it's way into Louisiana. Whether this is a named storm or not, it will bring with it lots of rain, somewhere.
Where? Harder to pinpoint. How much? Also harder to pinpoint. For now those answers are more broad, but the good news is tomorrow this should become much more clear.
Currently the Weather Prediction Center has us hatched in for a Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Day 3 (Friday into Saturday) meaning those areas are likely to see Flash Flood Criteria.
This air mass, named or not, will carry a large amount of tropical moisture, that if/where it stalls, will see high amounts of rain, and also periods of time with very efficient and high rainfall rates.
Current forecast shows average ranges of 5 to 8 inches of rain for much of Acadiana, with hot spots at it's worst possible of nearly 15", but this is reasonable worst case. It's better to be prepared for the worst of what can happen, and right now, that's areas around Lafayette getting double digits of rainfall. But, too soon to tell if that's the case, yet.
Tomorrow will be an important day to nail down and clarify the forecast once the system actually does emerge off of Florida.
The next name on the list would be Dexter, we are waiting to see if NHC declares it a PTC, or a Potential Tropical Cyclone to start issuing more warning products. There is currently a Flood Watch issued for much of South Louisiana that is active.
Models don't currently anticipate this system to become stronger than a Tropical Storm, but that can change with time as the Low actually hits the Gulf, however it will have some locally higher wind shear to battle through despite being above warm enough waters for strengthening.
If you read this and have any questions or confusion, feel free to reach out to me online, I answer as much as I can online! Find me on Facebook here - Jobie Lagrange
