WeatherHurricane Center


Isolated showers Sunday-Monday & Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen forms

Posted at 4:37 PM, Oct 06, 2018

After lots of tropical showers and storms on Saturday rain chances look to go down Sunday and Monday as winds turn more easterly.

With rain chances down around 20-30% the next couple days that means we will see more sunshine leading to another couple summer-like days with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

Futurecast Temperatures


Tuesday widespread scattered showers and storms return as tropical moisture from the likely storm in the Gulf.

Futurecast Satellite and Radar


But thanks to a cool front that will be working down out of the Great Plains and drifting towards the region that should help to steer the storm towards the AL-FL border.

Thus, we will not see much from this system outside a few scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.

Once the front pushes through Thursday afternoon our weather should turn very nice and finally feel like fall by the weekend.

Meaning we are looking at fantastic weather for Festival Acadien with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.

As for the tropics we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen in the Caribbean.

Tropical Satellite of Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 Saturday afternoon

On Saturday the disturbance has become better organized with lots of convection forming on the eastern side of the system but there is still no closed circulation to call it a depression yet.

Sunday the disturbance is projected to start forming a circulation as winds become more focused around the center of low pressure.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning the system could strengthen and become Tropical Storm Michael as it brushes by the Yucatan Peninsula.

NHC projected track for Potential Tropical Cyclone 14

After emerging in the Gulf Monday afternoon and moves over the water Gulf warms the storm will strengthen more as it moves north.

By Tuesday afternoon it could become a strong tropical storm in the central Gulf.

As I mentioned earlier a cool front heading our way should help to then steer the storm away from us and towards the AL-FL border where it is projected to make landfall sometime Wednesday afternoon as a strong tropical storm or weak category 1 hurricane.

After landfall the system will weaken as it works up towards the Carolinas by Thursday where they definitely could not use more rain as they still try to recover from Florence.