WeatherHurricane Center


More rain in the forecast & latest on Kirk & Leslie

Posted at 4:16 PM, Sep 23, 2018


No changes to the forecast for the week ahead as the gloomy and rainy weather is sticking around for the Pelican State.

A front boundary will continue to be in place across the lower Tennessee Valley back into Arkansas and down into SE Texas.

Acadiana will be out ahead of this frontal zone and with a southerly flow pushing Gulf moisture over the region that will spark off on and off showers and storms Monday and Tuesday.

RPM Model for Monday afternoon showing hit or miss showers and storms

And with this unsettled pattern a passing shower will be possible at anytime throughout the day but the best chance for showers will still be in the afternoon.

RPM model showing the chance for more on and off showers and storms on Tuesday

In between the rain we could see a few peeks of sunshine but for the most part it will be rather cloudy.

With the clouds and passing showers highs will hold in the mid 80s but it is still going to feel quite humid.

Wednesday a “cool” front will then try to work down into Louisiana but again this looks to stall out over the northern portion of the state so we will not see any cooler temperatures but this front will be the focal point for more scattered showers and storms to fire up on Wednesday and Thursday.

Cool front will try to work into Acadiana producing more showers and storms Wednesday

Friday the front will begin to wash out but I think there will still be enough instability for a 50% chance for hit or miss showers and storms, especially during the afternoon.

By next weekend it does look like we will begin to see a fair amount of sunshine return across Acadiana warming temperatures into the upper 80 to near 90 for highs.

With the sunshine and heating of the day we will still have about a 30-40% chance for pop-up showers and storms to develop during the afternoon.

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In the Atlantic things are staying busy with several weak disturbances spinning around that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring.

NHC monitoring several disturbances in Atlantic

Tropical Storm Kirk remains a fairing weak system as it is fighting some dry air getting wrapped into the right side of the storm as winds are holding at 40 mph.

Tropical Satellite of Kirk Sunday afternoon

The big news with Kirk is its speed as Kirk is racing to the west at 23 mph.

Continuing at this speed to the west the hurricane center has it projected to reach the Lesser Antilles Islands sometime late Thursday or Early Friday morning.

NHC projected track for Kirk

The good news is Kirk is not expected to strengthen much and should be a weak tropical storm by the time it reaches the islands.

After crossing over the Lesser Antilles Kirk is forecasted to move into the Caribbean Sea.

It is at that point that we will have to start paying attention to Kirk but as of right now most models keep Kirk out of the Gulf of Mexico and have it dying in the Caribbean or as it moves into Central America.

Also, in the Atlantic we now have Subtropical Storm Leslie.

Leslie is a very board low pressure system but is producing winds of 40 mph so the center decided to give it a name.

Tropical Satellite of Leslie Sunday afternoon

Leslie is the 12th named storm of the season and the 6th to be called subtropical at some point during its lifetime.

The official track for Leslie keeps it out over the up waters and is expected to fall apart in a couple days.

NHC projected path for Leslie