WeatherHurricane Center


Keeping an eye on Isaac as watches are issued for Lesser Antilles Islands

Posted at 12:45 PM, Sep 11, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-11 17:23:39-04

Tuesday 4PM Update: Isaac is weakening and becoming exposed on the western side as the storm continues to run into increased middle level shear.

Tropical Satellite of Isaac Tuesday afternoon

With Isaac now fighting this wind shear the intensity forecast has been changed keeping Isaac just a tropical storm the next 5 days.

Also, Isaac is picking up speed to the west and so is now projected to get deeper into the Caribbean Sea this weekend but good news for Acadiana is it should stay to the south and out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday afternoon NHC official track
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As Isaac continues its track towards the Lesser Antilles islands hurricane watches have been issued for Dominica, Guadeloupe and Martinque, while Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis are under a tropical storm watch.

Tuesday morning Isaac has encountered some westerly wind shear weakened the system slightly down to a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds.

Isaac will continue its gradual westerly motion in the coming days and slide over warm waters and runs into a more favorable environment allowing Isaac to maybe restrengthen to a hurricane again on Wednesday.

But after reaching hurricane strengthen the National Hurricane Center forecasts Isaac to be downgraded to a strong tropical storm as it makes landfall with the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday afternoon.

Hurricane watches have been issued for Lesser Antilles Islands

However, there are still a lot of uncertainties as far as the intensity with Isaac in the coming days which is why some of the islands have issued hurricane watches.

After pushing into the Caribbean Sea this weekend Isaac is project to slowly weaken but remain a strong tropical storm.

Full NHC Tuesday 11AM Track

Looking at the extended spaghetti plots for Isaac shows all the uncertainty with this storm but a few more models are trying to take Isaac into the Gulf of Mexico so we will have to keep an eye on this storm into next week.

Spaghetti plots for Tropical Storm Isaac

That said our main long range GFS and European models do not show Isaac making it into the Gulf but rather staying on a westerly track into Central America.

One thing that might help us next week to keep Isaac to the south is the long range models are hinting at maybe our first fall cold front of the season which would push the storms away from Acadiana.

But that is 10 days out so things are likely to change in the coming days so we will be watching the models and keeping you informed with the latest information.