Upper ridge is holding, when it comes to Dorian that's good for Louisiana

Posted at 8:54 AM, Aug 29, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-29 10:58:15-04

Thursday morning hasn't provided many surprises with the Dorian forecast, with the only changes being little tweaks to try and keep up with model trends.

Landfall is still expected along the Florida's east coast but the exact location still remains a mystery, anywhere from Jacksonville to Miami are all in play, but remember the effects can be felt miles away from landfall.

Current intensity forecasts call for a major hurricane by early next week as Dorian is now in an area that is much more favorable for development.

The system has slowed a little which would push back landfall until Labor Day giving it a little more time over the warm Atlantic Ocean, explaining Wednesday's increase in the intensity.

So far all models are indicating that the block ridge will hold, keeping the system out of Louisiana (and according to the latest EURO run out of the Gulf entirely).

Until there are signs that the ridge breaks down the concern for the western Gulf of Mexico will be minimal, helping along with the ridges will be a trough to the north which will pull the storm in between the ridges and out along the east coast.

There should always be concern when it comes to these systems, we preach being prepared and vigilant every year and this storm will be no different.

There's a big difference though in being prepared and being scared, so it seems appropriate to take some time and discuss what will be an onslaught of Dorian news this weekend.

While a long lead up to a storm gives everyone extra time to prepare and make decisions the bombardment of stories regarding Dorian will feel like a full on assault, and can have the unintended consequence of working up every resident from Miami to Brownsville.

Anyone who follows meteorologists will be hit with model image after model image (some scary, others comforting) every few hours day after day. The noise surrounding Dorian will be deafening.

Listening to all that noise though does you a major disservice it clouds judgment, it makes it hard to decipher what is important and what is meaningless, it's a complete overload of information.

Try to ignore the constant model runs, reacting to each individual model run doesn't help and isn't how those models are meant to be used.

They're to be looked at to find overall patterns and trends a single model does not make a forecast, and anyone pointing you to a singular model image without larger context is likely trying to get you to click on them.

This rings especially true for Louisiana residents who are keeping an eye on Dorian, there's no point staying glued to every model run and running to the computer to download the NHC advisory every three hours.

Instead try and check in once or twice a day just to make sure there's no major changes to what the talking points have been for the last few days.

If you have interests in east Florida a little more attention is warranted, although I still would suggest staying away from rushing to each individual model as it comes out.

There are too many things in the world to be worried about at any given point in time, don't unnecessarily add a tropical system to that list.

Instead leave that to those of us who get paid to stress about the tropics, we've got your back we'll let you know if it's time to pay more attention.