A new poll of voters in the key battleground state of Georgia released Thursday shows incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff with a clear lead over Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins, even as the race for the governor’s mansion remains deadlocked.
AARP commissioned and funded the survey, which was conducted by Democratic and Republican pollsters.
The poll shows that among likely voters, Ossoff leads Collins by nine points in the Senate race, 52-43, while Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Keisha Lance Bottoms holds just a two-point lead over business executive and GOP opponent Rick Jackson (48-46), well within the AARP poll’s margin of error.
Yet as election day inches closer, the pollsters behind the survey expect both races to tighten – especially given the role voters over 50 are poised to play in the contests.
“The current environment is challenging for Republicans right now, but you know, come election day, this will be close,” Bob Ward, a partner at the GOP polling firm Fabrizio Ward, which worked on the survey, told Scripps News.
“Voters 50 plus will really be the deciding force,” echoed Matt Hogan of the Democratic firm Impact Research, which also contributed to the bipartisan poll.
In the 2026 primaries, Georgians 50 and over made up 68% of the electorate. Based on the state’s demographics and previous voting patterns, Ward and Hogan project that 57% of voters who show up at the polls in the November general election will be over 50 years old.
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Moreover, their survey shows a significant enthusiasm gap between voters of different age groups; 88% of voters 50+ rate themselves a 10-out-of-10 in terms of motivation while only 62% of those under 50 did the same, a 26-point discrepancy, Hogan noted.
Ossoff’s lead in the Senate race can mostly be attributed to his widespread name recognition, his popularity among independents and the fact that he did not face any challengers in the Democratic primary, the pollsters said.
Collins, conversely, faced a contested GOP primary, while neither Bottoms nor Jackson is as well-known to voters nor can either benefit from an incumbency advantage.
“There are four months plus to go in this race in which John Ossoff will be defined by his opponent,” Ward said. “On both sides, there are candidates yet to be defined.”
Across all contests, meanwhile, voters’ concerns about the economy and cost of living rank highest – another explanation for Democrats’ early lead in the races.
“Republicans are seen as the party in power, and we see in this poll that you've got a strong majority of Georgia voters who were worried about their current financial situation,” Hogan said. “That is really benefiting Democrats and helping drive that advantage.”
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Yet that partisan split on economic issues was less pronounced for older Georgians: voters over 50 backed Jackson by a 13-point margin and Collins by 8 points.
Many in that group pointed to concerns about the longevity and cost of retirement programs like Social Security and Medicare, with 92% saying they're more likely to support a candidate who ensures seniors get the Social Security benefits that they paid into, and 87% supporting policies expanding Medicare's ability to negotiate lower prescription drug prices.
Focus on other issues was split by partisan preferences: Democrats tended to raise concerns about threats to democracy, while Republicans were concerned about immigration and taxes.
But there was one additional issue of interest to all voters: data centers.
“This is an issue of the moment in Georgia and many other states, and the concern is high,” Ward said.
Across nearly all age, racial and partisan groups, voters pointed to fears that the AI infrastructure buildouts would increase their utility bills.
“There is no difference at all there; it’s very much a bipartisan issue,” Hogan noted.
The AARP poll of likely Georgia voters was conducted based on interviews with 1,060 voters statewide from July 13-16, 2026, via live interviews on cell phones, landlines and SMS-to-web with a margin of error of ±3.0%.
