Tropical Depression 22 likely to be TS Beta

Posted at 4:23 AM, Sep 18, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-18 13:30:18-04

Tropical Depression 22 has formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

The storm was expected to become Alpha by the end of the day, but the NHC has named another system off of Portual's coast as Subtropical Storm Alpha.

TD 22 will now likely be Beta and will have the potential for becoming a hurricane on the table over the weekend.

This is going to be an incredibly frustrating storm with a lack of steering currents the storm seems to be in no hurry, and will simply drift around the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, before drifting to the west (and then possible drifting back to the north).

It's hard to get a consensus on these types of storms, so be prepared for a changing forecast as the forecast track drifts back and forth bringing the various impacts along with those changes in track.

Acadiana specifically could be looking at some showers by the end of the weekend depending on how far north the system goes and tides and seas are going to be running fairly high prompting a Coastal Flood Advisory.

An initial look at the rain totals is fairly encouraging, again this will likely change over the next few days trending in one direction or another, with most of the rain staying well offshore, although some 25-30" totals will be sitting just off the Texas coast.

Simply based on early model runs Wilfred looks like it's most intense impacts will stay offshore but keep in mind we are early in the forecast process and these slow movers can be really fickle (as we just saw with Hurricane Sally).

The front that moved through this weekend should help keep this off the Louisiana coast for a little while, hence the west turn, but once that front starts to lift it may pull the system north and into Louisiana.

There's a lot of "ifs" for that scenario to pan out but it is worth mentioning so we keep this storm in the back of our minds and realize that impacts in Louisiana are still on the table.

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