Summer pattern firmly takes hold; uncertainty in the tropics

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Posted at 5:39 AM, Jun 10, 2021

The forecast is really becoming entrenched in a summer pattern with temperatures on the rise and showers becoming more sporadic.

Thursday won't be different, the highs in the afternoon are going to sit in the low 90s and the heat index pushing into the triple digits by the end of the day.

Rain chances are going to remain pretty low and most of us will stay dry, that being said a stray shower or two can't be ruled out during the afternoon.

This is more or less how the next few days will play out, with a few changes in the forecast arriving for the back half of the weekend.

Sunday is going to see a few more showers in the forecast with slightly more moisture on tap, although a washout isn't expected.

Tropics Update:

The disturbed area no longer poses a threat to develop into a tropical system for now, again I want to stress that last part "for now".

Models are still picking up on something trying to get going in the western Gulf late next week, but that's about where the consensus ends.

The EURO has been a little more drastic and bullish on developing a tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico, this scenario would bring a landfalling system between Louisiana and Texas (we can't narrow that down at all until we get some more consistency).

On the other hand, the GFS doesn't create a tropical system.

Instead it picks up on a lopsided, asymmetric blob of moisture that would bring heavy showers to the Florida Peninsula through the end of NEXT weekend.

That's how far apart the models are right now and until there is an actual defined low, which there likely won't be for a few days, there's little chance that these models come together.

So while it's worth monitoring, which the tropics always are this time of year, it's hard to say with any certainty that there is something brewing.

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