Showers and storms Sunday, locally heavy rains possible

Posted at 5:24 PM, May 21, 2022

A few, isolated storms will remain possible through early this evening (30%).

Better chance of showers and storms later tonight and into Sunday as a frontal trough from the north collides with the warm, moist Gulf atmosphere to its south.

Graf model

I'd plan on at least scattered activity throughout the entire day, although some models try to dry us out by the afternoon.

Any one particular storm we see could contain strong gusty winds, heavy downpours, and/or pea-size hail.

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Severe storm risk

With more clouds, afternoon highs will be limited to the low-mid 80s.

Looks like we'll get some drier air in here for Monday helping to lower rain chances.

Side note: Our first plume of Saharan dust may also help to reduce storm chances as well...

Dust Forecast.png
Next week

However, a couple more impulses of upper-level energy will yield to elevated rain chances both Tuesday and Wednesday with some activity lingering into early portions of Thursday.

A decent soaking of 2-4"+ of rainfall likely over the next few days.

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Euro Model

Drier, more comfortable air will filter in by the end of the week.

Rain chances will remain low Friday through the Memorial Day weekend.

Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies...

Have a nice rest of the weekend!

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