Quiet start to the week, but tropics heating up

Posted at 5:42 AM, Aug 17, 2020

After a few scattered showers early in the morning on Monday the rest of the forecast this week is looking ultimately pretty straight forward.

This time of year there's little change in the day to day weather and that's more or less what we can expect through the majority of the work week.

We are getting things started with a weak front moving through sparking a scattering of showers across the area which will be possible through the first half of the morning.

These showers will be short lived and isolated, although a few storms may end up being a little intense but again they're not expected to last all that long.

Once the showers come to an end on Monday morning we're looking at a hot and sunny afternoon with temperatures pushing into the mid 90s, heat index near the triple digits.

The front will usher in some drier air which won't help much with temperatures but it does keep the heat index from running out of control when the highs on Tuesday move into the upper 90s.

Much of the work week will be that way with temperatures in the mid 90s and mostly sunny skies, continuing our summer pattern.

It's time to talk about the tropics with a couple different waves looking like they may cause some trouble as we go through the rest of this week and into next

There are currently two different waves in the Atlantic worth talking about and both have a medium chance of development 50-60% over the next five days as they move from east to west.

Early model indications would put both of these waves in the Gulf of Mexico by next week, one as an open wave the other as a potential named storm.

Right now it is way to early in the forecast process to say with any certainty what is going to happen, after all these are still just cluster of thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean.

That being said, they should both be watched closely over the course of the week and while hourly updates may be a little much it will be worth maybe checking on once a day or once every other day until we get a better idea what will be happening.

All we have to go on now is long range models which are reliable to a certain point but they can only tell us so much and when you're looking more then a few days out their skills are limited.

So while it's early in the forecast period it may be a good idea to start keeping an eye on the tropics.

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