There's some rumblings in the tropics with several different tropical waves that have a chance to develop into the next named storm, one of which may have some impacts on Acadiana, so we'll take a look at the state of the Gulf of Mexico.
It's been an interesting start to the week out in the Gulf with one tropical wave sparking showers along the coast from central Texas through south Louisiana as a low tried to develop on Monday but ultimately wasn't successful.
This low is going to be responsible for yet another round of intermittent showers through the day on Tuesday with rainfall moving from south to north, and at times producing heavy downpours.
Since the low sits so close to the coast there's no shot at further development, but it'll keep the showers in the forecast for the middle of the work week as it moves to the northwest.
As this particular disturbance moves out of the area it will give us a chance to catch our breath, and while there will be a scattering of showers on Wednesday it'll be the driest day of the week.
The second wave the Gulf of Mexico is looking out is a little more interesting as it currently sits over Cuba, and is steadily moving into the Gulf of Mexico where conditions are a little more favorable for development.
In fact the National Hurricane Center has bumped up the development chances from 20 to 40% over the next couple of days, and there's a little more model support out there for development.
A Hurricane Reconnaissance Aircraft is scheduled to further explore the storm which could help add some much needed data to help clarify the forecast, particularly when it comes to forecasting the development of the low.
As of Tuesday morning the impacts for Acadiana remain widely scattered showers through the end of the week and the weekend, which may cause some minor, localized flooding.
This wave is going to bring deep tropical moisture across the Gulf of Mexico and will spark widespread, heavy showers across the region Thursday through Saturday.
Once again these won't be wall to wall rain there's still going to be breaks in the activity which give us chances to get the water to drain, and the heaviest rain should occur along the Texas coast.
As mentioned above, models are showing some signs of development and both the EURO and GFS are looking similar with the low moving onshore around Corpus Christi by the end of the week.
The recent run of models would indicate that perhaps we end up with either a tropical depression or a low end tropical storm off the Texas coast by the end of the work week.
It's more a matter of semantics though as the impacts for Acadiana will stay more or less the same despite the development, or lack there of, of this particular wave.
It'll be a wet stretch of days Thursday through the weekend, which will continue to be the on/off again variety, but at times will be able to produce heavy downpours.
Despite the high rain chances through the week the actual rain totals look manageable, and luckily the heaviest rain will remain offshore through the majority of the work week.
It's possible in localized cases to see some of those numbers double which could lead to some localized flooding but this isn't expected to be a widespread event.
A little more alarming is the high moisture content that will move into central Texas and areas around San Antonio may pick up close to 10+ inches of rain over the next several days.
The tropical season is a marathon, remember, not a sprint and we are really still just at the beginning of this season.
It's hard to stay on top of these forecasts everyday, and for those who are unfamiliar with tropical weather if a small wave can cause this much of a write up just wait until there's an actual storm.
That being said it's a chore to keep up with ever changing forecasts but it is important, especially during this time of year.
So remember as things change we'll bring those changes to you and give you the information you need to stay safe, not just with this wave, but every other storm we may see this season.
