June 1st is a day that almost everyone along the Gulf Coast has circled.
It's the official start of the hurricane season, and while most major storms don't arrive until August, it's the time when the hurricane plans start to get dusted off and reviewed.
There's not a single person in Louisiana that needs me to remind them what last year's season looked like, a season that shattered records and ended with Louisiana seeing four different storms make landfall.
In total Louisiana spent almost 20 entire days under some kind of watch or warning and fell in the cone of uncertainty for at least five storms, leading to over a month long stretch of weather related anxiety.
As we sit at the beginning of another hurricane season the forecast looks like it is going to be above average, with all of the various seasonal outlooks coming in above normal.
One of the more reliable outlooks comes from Dr. Klotzbach who is calling for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major storms.
It is important to give these numbers some context though before declaring another catastrophic season.
All this forecast can give us is the number of storms, it can't tell us where these storms will develop and there's always going to be a margin of error in either direction.
The higher number of storms would mean the higher likelihood that some of those storms make it to the coast, but again there's no pinpointing where that could be.
Instead of focusing on a seasonal forecast and zeroing in on the numbers simply take it as a reminder that we have reached our most perilous time of year.
I know how much anxiety there is across south Louisiana in regards to this hurricane season, and after last year that anxiety is completely justified.
While there's an amount of anxiety that is probably healthy, a lot of that anxiety can actually get in the way of making rational decisions or to think objectively once these storms start to pop up.
The best way to fight that anxiety is to prepare for the season now.
Go through your hurricane kits and make sure you have everything you need, some of those kits are probably looking a little empty after last year.
Review your plan with your family and have a good idea of what needs to be done in the event of a pending storm, so that you can act quickly and efficiently.
That preparedness goes a long way in helping create a small amount of comfort and that small amount can go a long way.
Finally let us do the forecasting.
Weather information can be found everywhere, it's easy to access various models and to follow along with meteorologists on the internet as the analyze various model runs.
Those model runs change though, all the time, and a snapshot of a land falling hurricane 10 days out is often an anomaly and nothing that should be taken seriously.
We see the same information that you all do, and it's safe to say if it's something you need to be concerned about then we will be talking about it and letting you know everything we know.
There's no sense in stressing over every single model run that comes in this summer or you'll spend the entire summer stressed and will be burned out when you actually need to be paying attention.
A lot of people will be ready to share those model images too, so be mindful of who is sharing it and what exactly they're sharing.
While many of it is the well intention of weather enthusiasts there are plenty who are looking to take advantage of your anxiety for clicks.
It seems like the 2020 hurricane season still ended, and while many of us haven't recovered from last year's season, we still need to be prepared for the one to come.
Stay in touch with us anytime, anywhere.
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