Isaias trends a little further east

Posted at 6:07 AM, Jul 30, 2020

It was late Wednesday night when a closed center of circulation was discovered officially giving Tropical Storm Isaias its name, and now hopefully a little more confidence in the forecast.

The latest track from the NHC is coming in slightly to the east, keeping the cone out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but impacts will still be felt along the Florida Peninsula.

An eastward shift, obviously takes Louisiana out of the occasion, and while changes in the forecast are certainly likely even then it won't be an issue for the northern and western Gulf Coast.

The reason being is the large scale pattern just won't allow for it, a trough digging across the country will force that storm to the east, where the ridge in the Atlantic has retreated just a hair to the east allowing Isaias to skirt up the east coast.

This has been played out in the models for the last couple of days which is building more and more confidence in the track of the forecast, the intensity though will be a different matter with so much land interaction ahead.

As of Wednesday, the NHC keeps Isaias a strong tropical storm approaching hurricane strength by the end of the weekend with winds peaking around 70 mph Sunday evening.

Intensity largely depends on the exact track with small variations making major differences, and while the EURO rides a little closer to the western edge of that cone, the GFS keeps it out over the Atlantic.

Obviously a storm staying further east would end up having a better chance at strengthening then one running up the Florida peninsula, so when it comes to intensity we return to that wait and see mode.

The tropics behind Isaias look quiet for at least a week with the latest African wave having a slim chance at surviving the hostile central basin.

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