Hot conditions in Louisiana as tropics heat up; Latest on PTC 6

Hurricane Tracker Rob 2017 Number 2.png
Tropical Satellite Enhanced Rob2.png
Posted at 3:34 PM, Aug 10, 2021
and last updated 2021-08-10 20:00:14-04

Heat is going to remain Acadiana's number one issue over the next couple of days with sunshine and high humidity leading to heat index values in the triple digits through the rest of the week.

At times it feels as if the heat is unrelenting but a surge of tropical moisture toward the end of the week may provide a few more showers and in turn a little heat relief.

Until then showers will remain isolated at best and the temperatures will continue to sit in the low to mid 90s and the heat index close to 105 in the afternoon.

The next push of deeper moisture won't arrive until Thursday, and won't really take hold until the weekend which is when our rain chances will increase.

Tropics Update:

While the weather close to home stays quiet the focus of the weather community will be turned to the tropics and the pending arrival of T.S Fred, followed almost immediately by another wave that is out in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical Satellite Enhanced Rob2.png

The parade of tropical waves in the Atlantic isn't all that uncommon for this time of year and since there's a lot of unknowns regarding the wave to the east we'll focus most of our attention on PTC Six.

As of Tuesday afternoon the Hurricane Hunters had been unsuccessful in locating a closed center of circulation with in PTC 6, so despite having winds around 35 mph it doesn't match all the criteria to be given a name.

The reason for the PTC designation, however, allows watches and warning to be placed along the islands being impacted as those impacts are currently similar to a tropical storm.


While the structure of the storm does look better than this morning, the satellite imagery is a little deceptive as the storm looks a little more organized than it actually is at the moment.

It's been struggling with dry air through the day which may be wrapping into the system and over the last few hours looked as if it had competing vortices with two different flare ups.

The key to this storm will be to see where exactly the center develops as it's trying to thread the needle between islands, which it'll need to do in order to build much intensity.

Hurricane Tracker Rob 2017 Number 2.png

National Hurricane Center forecasters are under the impression that there will be some significant interaction with the Dominican Republic and bring the storm back down to a tropical depression in the next 24 hours.

Looking at the cone of uncertainty though on the northern edge of that cone they do leave open the possibility of keeping the center over water which could mean a slightly stronger storm down the line.

Thursday will bring the storm back out into the Florida Straights where it will be in an environment a little more conducive to development and will regain it's strength to a tropical storm.

GFS Model projection, not an official forecast.

The NHC seems to be leaning heavily on the GFS, which makes sense as it seems to be handling tropical systems a little better than the EURO (a trend that goes back to the 2020 season) and the EURO model is looking more like the GFS than it did on Monday.

What's immediately noticeable is the model keeps the wave from developing any kind of core until the weekend and instead keeps it an open wave through the Florida Straights, and that can be seen in the NHC forecast as well.

This all means that the next 24-48 hours will be very important in the life of PTC 6, and ultimately how strong the system can become as it gets into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Even as it enters the Gulf this doesn't look to be a weather maker in Louisiana with all of the impacts felt predominately along the Florida Peninsula which looks to receive flooding rains and gusty winds arriving as early Saturday.

Those with interests in Florida, particularly south Florida, need to monitor this system closely over the next several days.

While this isn't looking to impact Louisiana let this be a reminder that this is the busiest time of year in the tropics, something we'll keep reminding you of over the next two months.

Stay in touch with us anytime, anywhere.

To reach the newsroom or report a typo/correction, click HERE.

Sign up for newsletters emailed to your inbox. Select from these options: Breaking News, Evening News Headlines, Latest COVID-19 Headlines, Morning News Headlines, Special Offers

Follow us on Twitter

Like us on Facebook

Follow us on Instagram

Subscribe to our Youtube channel