Big summer heat and heat indices are on tap for Acadiana into the weekend as high pressure aloft overhead and at the surface in the Gulf of Mexico will take a dominant position over the region.
This will keep rain chances low, and with the orientation of the high pressure system in the Gulf, mostly W/SW winds are expected.
And when the winds orient more to the west (especially during the midday hours), this will allow for temperatures to easily reach the mid-90s..but when the winds have a more southerly component the slight cooling effects of the Gulf of Mexico will come into play...especially across the coastal parishes.
This will be the pattern we see well into next week so overall temperatures will be running 2-4 degrees above normal during the day, and near 5 degrees above normal at night.
Expect mostly sunny skies Friday with temperatures reaching 93-94° accompanied by heat indices in the 104-107° range. Rain chance Friday will be less than 5%.
Temperatures at night won't be too pleasant either with lows staying near the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Little change is anticipated for Saturday, while Sunday there could be a renegade shower or storm that slips in the area primarily during the afternoon and/or early evening, but as of this writing, rain chances should be near 20%, but they could get a little higher (or lower for that matter) with time.
No major changes in the pattern are anticipated through mid-next week with rain chances generally staying near 10% or less.
And with high temperatures expected to push the mid-90s while night time/morning lows will be close to 80, Heat Advisories may be required by the National Weather Service for our area.
Heat indices this weekend into next week will likely approach the 106-112° range.
There is a suggestion by the models that "tropical easterlies" will take charge of the pattern toward the end of next week and into the following weekend, .
This change could drift disturbances and tropical waves westward across the Gulf of Mexico engendering a better chance of scattered showers and storms, and perhaps take somewhat of an edge of the heat, mainly for Friday and possibly into the following weekend.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
In the tropics, the sixth named tropical system of the year formed in the Atlantic Thursday afternoon.
Hurricane Hunters found a closed low level circulation with a disturbance off of the North Carolina Coast Thursday afternoon with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Fay, is expected slightly strengthen (to 50mph winds) as it is expected to bring some wind and rain to New Jersey, New York and portions of New England into the weekend.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Cape May New Jersey northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including Long Island and Long Island Sound.
Key messages for Fay per the National Hurricane Center on this system:
RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain along and near the track of Fay across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding where the heaviest amounts occur.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area on Friday and spread northward through the warning area Friday night.
Elsewhere, the tropics remain quiet.
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