An upper level disturbance approaching from the west will interact with that moisture translating to a good chance (60-70%) of scattered showers and storms Thursday.
The day won't be a wash-out in most areas, but do keep the umbrella/rain gear handy. Some storms however, could slow or stall in a few spots which could result in a couple of inches of rain, but the threat of flooding should stay relatively low.
Temperatures Thursday will start out in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees while Thursday afternoon highs should be limited closer to the lower 80s with plenty of clouds.
While shower activity should wane somewhat at night, there will still be the risk of shower or thundershower activity at least through a portion of Thursday night, especially up to midnight.
More of the same can be expected Friday with a good scattering of showers and storms at about 60%.
The weekend portion of the forecast gets trickier...and forget about next week, as models are in a state of disarray in the pattern.
But we do know there will likely be a weak area of meandering low pressure that will develop in Texas Saturday producing locally heavy rains there, with just scattered activity expected in Acadiana.
This feature should drift eastward Sunday enhancing the chance of showers and some locally heavy thunderstorms here in Acadiana.
Beyond Sunday, there is complete disagreement between the Euro and GFS models, with the GFS keeping a wandering system in the region (and perhaps offshore over warm Gulf waters) while the Euro has broken from the same pattern, and allowing the low to be more progressive moving eastward and away from Acadiana early next week.
For now, the 10 Day forecast (which is very different than yesterday's forecast for the 5-10 day period) is reflecting the somewhat drier solution that the Euro model is advertising into mid-next week.
But we will continue to monitor the "meandering" weekend system because if there is a definitive stall there could be much more rain potential locally for Acadiana.
For now, both the GFS and Euro models paint the heaviest rain threat over the next week confined primarily to Southeast/Eastern Texas...with only a few inches possible in the Acadiana area...this will be something to keep an eye on...
Meanwhile in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is maintaining a 70% chance that a tropical hybrid low pressure system and/or sub-tropical storm may develop near the Bahamas this weekend and then move north-northeastward thereafter.
This system should be of no threat to our part of the Gulf of Mexico.
If the system gets upgraded to "storm" status, it will be named Arthur. And if so, this will make it 7 out of the last 10 years that a system has been named before the official start of hurricane season on June 1st.
And with a persistently warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico of Mexico in the last decade, maybe it's time to start our hurricane season in lock step with the Eastern Pacific, which starts officially May 15th...just a thought!
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