Louisiana had the slowest job recovery of all states ranking 50th in COVID- related job losses recovered; Hurricane Ida was obviously a factor in the state's economy.
A new forecast from the University of Louisiana at Lafayette shows that employment projects fell shy of the third quarter projections with the state having regained 38 % of those jobs in the third quarter, according to The Daily Advertiser.
Gary Wagner, economics professor with UL's B.I. Moody III College of Business Administration, wrote in his forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021 that the state's unemployment rate has fallen more than expected over the last three months, though it's largely due to people leaving the labor force.
According to Wagner, if all of the people in Louisiana who have left the labor force since the first quarter of 2021 had remained working, Louisiana's unemployment rate would be an estimated 9.7% — four percentage points higher than the official rate.
Most of Louisiana's nine metropolitan areas missed Wagner's employment projections from his previous forecast, with only Alexandria exceeding his job outlook.
Louisiana added 3,400 jobs in the third quarter of 2021, and the state is expected to add 37,000 jobs over the next year. In the first two quarters of 2021, the state lost a combined 1,000 jobs. Since ranking 50th in COVID- related job losses recovered, the state regained 38% of those jobs. Hurricane Ida effects this and job growth is expected to remain slow.
Most of Louisiana's metro areas fell shy of third quarter employment projections, with Houma-Thibodaux and New Orleans losing jobs due to Hurricane Ida, UL's forecast shows.
"Hurricane Ida sharply reduced employment in the Houma-Thibodaux and New Orleans metro areas in September," Wagner wrote. "Both regions are expected to grow more slowly in the near-term."
Most of Louisiana's nine metropolitan areas missed Wagner's employment projections from his previous forecast, with only Alexandria exceeding his job outlook.
UL's forecast:
Alexandria - The area has 60,300 jobs in the third quarter of 2021, 0.5% higher than the projected 60,000. Fourth quarter of 2021: forecast predicts 500 jobs will be added. They say it will take more than a year to reach pre-COVID job numbers of 61,600. The metro area added 500 jobs in the third quarter.
Baton Rouge - The area added around 1,500 jobs in the third quarter for a total of 386,600. Projection was close to the third quarter projections,falling by 0.1% shy of the projected 387,100. The capital area is expected to add 2,600 jobs in the fourth quarter. It will likely take more than a year more for Baton Rouge to get back to its pre-COVID employment of 407,500.
Hammond- The area met projection of 46,000 jobs in the third quarter. An increase of 200 job is expected in the fourth quarter. Expected to reach pre-COVID employment levels in the third quarter of 2022.
Houma-Thibodaux - The area was the furthest from Wagner's third quarter projection, falling 1.9% shy of the foretasted 82,700. The metro area lost 1,400 jobs in the third quarter due to Hurricane Ida, giving it 81,100 total jobs in the quarter. Houma-Thibodaux is expected to lose another 500 jobs in the fourth quarter. The area is not anticipated to hit its pre-COVID job level of 87,100 in the next year.
Lafayette - Acadiana was 0.5% below the projected 192,900 jobs in the third quarter. It added around 800 jobs int he thirt quarter for a total of 192,00. It is expected to add 1,600 jobs in the fourth quarter. The area is unlikely to reach i ts pre-COVID job total of 205,100 in the next year.
Lake Charles - Impacted by 2020 Hurricanes Laura and Delta, the city met third quarter projections, recording a total of 93,400 jobs. Expected to add 800 jobs in the fourth quarter. Forecast show it will likely take more than another year to reach its pre-COVID jobs number of 111,000.
Monroe - Fell short of about 0.3% below the third quarter projections of 74,600 jobs. The area gained around 100 jobs for a total of 74,400. The city is expected to add another 300 jobs in the fourth quarter . It will likely take another year or longer for Monroe to meet pre-COVID job total of 77,900.
New Orleans - Fell short of third quarter projections at 1.3 % shy of 530,700 jobs, with the southeastern-most areas missing by the largest margins due to impacts form Hurricane Ida. The area lost around 400 jobs due to Hurricane Ida, giving the area a total of 523,900.
In the fourth quarter, the area is expected to add 7,200 jobs. New Orleans is expected to remain well short of its pre-COVID job total of 588,000.
Shreveport- Bossier - Fell 0.4% shy of the third quarter projection of 169,200 jobs. Added more than 900 jobs for a total of 168,500. The area is anticipated to add around 1,100 jobs in the fourth quarter. The forecast shows Shreveport-Bossier is unlikely to hit its pre-COVID job total of 179,300 any time in the next year.
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