WeatherTracking the Tropics


An intensifying Marco headlines the 10:00 a.m. advisory

Posted at 10:26 AM, Aug 22, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-22 16:03:57-04

The biggest change with the 10:00 a.m. advisory is the strengthening of Tropical Storm Marco which seems to be making it passed the Yucatan Peninsula with relatively little interaction from the land, and seems to be on the verge of hurricane strength.

T.S. Marco is getting into an area that is favorable to development now and could become a hurricane by the end of the day.

This change in intensity has caused a slight shift in the track to the north and east, however, as the ridge is still expected to expand it will likely still force a hard west turn early in the work week.

The changes are noted in the new forecast cone which once again has Louisiana back in that range of uncertainty with possible impacts arriving on Monday afternoon.

While conditions for development seem favorable now there is some strong shear expected in the north western Gulf of Mexico which will eat away at the structure and probably keep Marco either a Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm.

If the storm is facing intense shear then it could end up being a messier system which would mean flooding and heavy rains would be the primary threat, be on the look out for Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches to be issued late Saturday.

A storm approaching from this angle could make water pile up along the western edge of the Vermilion Bay and coastal flooding will certainly be an issue, particularly for coastal Iberia and Vermilion parish.

Still to early to get into specific rain totals as structure is still a question mark, but a shearing storm could put rain away from the center of the storm.

There are few changes with Laura's forecast as we haven't seen how the land interaction is going to go just yet but it continues to look more and more likely that Laura will hit the islands before passing into the Gulf of Mexico.

The way things currently stand it doesn't look like there will be any interaction between the two storms, but Marco churning up the Gulf could limit Laura's potential slightly, that being said the storm will likely intensify into hurricane early next week prior to landfall.

Once again, Louisiana is in the path of this storm with impacts from Laura arriving about 24 hours after we've dealt with Marco.

While confidence is slowly building, change is still likely and the forecast should continued to be monitored for changes.

As we reiterate time and again, now is the time to prepare.

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