After beautiful fall day, Acadiana starts to transition to a rainy forecast

Posted at 4:32 PM, Oct 23, 2019
and last updated 2019-10-23 23:53:53-04

There are usually only a handful of absolutely perfect weather days in south Louisiana each year, and I think it's safe to say that Wednesday can be marked down as one of those days.

Unfortunately the reason we enjoy these days so much is that they are fleeting, and the next big active weather maker is already starting to pop up on the horizon.

Thursday will be the transition day from one pattern to the next, this will be evidenced by a steady stream of clouds working their way into Acadiana and taking over the blue skies.

Winds will drift in from the east and moisture will start to arrive keeping temperatures running in the mid 70s despite a lack of afternoon sunshine.

The moisture that is drifting in will be the fuel used by an approaching cold front to spark a round of wide spread showers to wrap up the work week, so expect light to moderate showers all day Friday.

This moisture plume will be anchored deep in the Gulf of Mexico as tropical moisture will come surging in along the leading edge of the front, this could mean we pick up 1-2" across Acadiana with 3-4" localized spots possible.

In fact the NHC currently has that plume set up for a 30% chance of some tropical development but the front moving through would keep any tropical system out of Louisiana.

An extended cloud deck ahead of the front will limit instability so there's not an anticipation of severe weather, in fact limited heating will likely keep thunderstorms fairly weak.

When the front clears is the bigger question, with the forecast trending to a drier Saturday meaning the front could push through Friday night.

It looks like after being miles apart the models are starting to come together a little bit with the outlook favoring the faster moving, drier GFS model.

There hasn't been much consensus with the forecast timing over the last couple of days which is making it difficult to put a whole lot of faith in the forecast beyond the weekend.

We can expect another front to usher in some chilly weather for Halloween but the finer details still need to be ironed out so stay tuned to KATC for the latest.