Showers/Storms Likely Thursday morning

Posted at 5:24 PM, Apr 24, 2019
and last updated 2019-04-24 23:41:16-04

Still a tricky forecast to figure out what exactly Acadiana will see Thursday morning.

Models continue to flip back and forth with each new run this afternoon.

What I know is we have a complex of showers and storms moving through central Texas that is marching its way towards Louisiana.

Storms firing up back over Texas and heading for Louisiana


But looking on the water vapor in the upper levels there does seem to be a good bit of dry air getting wrapped around into the showers on the south side which has been preventing the storms from turning severe.

Dry air is wrapping around into the storms could limit the heavy rain potential


That said the models are still showing the tail end of the showers and storms over Texas moving into south Louisiana during the early morning hours on Thursday.

Heavy showers and storms arrive early Thursday morning


The models are in agreement that we might get a second line of showers and storms to move through Acadiana during the late morning hours.

Second round of storms could be the line that produces a few severe storms.


This is the line that we will have to watch closely for a couple storms to possibility turn severe as the models are showing more isolated, super-cell type storms which are the ones that could cause a brief spin-up tornado or large hail and damaging wind gusts.

For that reason the Storm Prediction Center has most of Acadiana under a marginal to slight risk for the possibility of severe weather Thursday morning.

Low end threat form a couple storms to be on the severe side Thursday


The good news is the latest models have back off quite a bit as far as rainfall totals for Acadiana as most places could receive about 1-2 inches of rains but we will still have to watch out for a few places that good see higher amounts leading to minor flash flooding.

Thursday showers to bring a good soaking to Acadiana but flooding threat is fairly low


Most of the rain should push east of Acadiana during the afternoon and hopefully we can dry out to have a nice evening for Festival with temperatures in the lower 70s.

High pressure will then build over the region Friday into the weekend setting up a fantastic forecast for Festival International with bright sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.

For more on the festival forecast click here.

Looking ahead to next week we will be in a typical late Spring pattern with partly cloudy skies each afternoon and warm temperatures in the mid 80s.

Also, a steady southerly breeze will be around pushing Gulf moisture over Acadiana leading to the slight chance for a stray shower each afternoon but rain chances only look to be about 20%.

The next chance for widespread showers might not be until the following weekend.