Still a tricky forecast to figure out what exactly Acadiana will see Thursday morning.
Models continue to flip back and forth with each new run this afternoon.
What I know is we have a complex of showers and storms moving through central Texas that is marching its way towards Louisiana.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164152/texas-storms.png)
But looking on the water vapor in the upper levels there does seem to be a good bit of dry air getting wrapped around into the showers on the south side which has been preventing the storms from turning severe.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164141/water-vapor.png)
That said the models are still showing the tail end of the showers and storms over Texas moving into south Louisiana during the early morning hours on Thursday.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164203/RPM-4km-Futurecast-Rob4.png)
The models are in agreement that we might get a second line of showers and storms to move through Acadiana during the late morning hours.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164215/Predictive-Radar.png)
This is the line that we will have to watch closely for a couple storms to possibility turn severe as the models are showing more isolated, super-cell type storms which are the ones that could cause a brief spin-up tornado or large hail and damaging wind gusts.
For that reason the Storm Prediction Center has most of Acadiana under a marginal to slight risk for the possibility of severe weather Thursday morning.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164241/Severe-Threat3.png)
The good news is the latest models have back off quite a bit as far as rainfall totals for Acadiana as most places could receive about 1-2 inches of rains but we will still have to watch out for a few places that good see higher amounts leading to minor flash flooding.
![](https://mediaassets.katc.com/cordillera-network/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/04/24164228/Euro-Precip-Potential-Louisiana9.png)
Most of the rain should push east of Acadiana during the afternoon and hopefully we can dry out to have a nice evening for Festival with temperatures in the lower 70s.
High pressure will then build over the region Friday into the weekend setting up a fantastic forecast for Festival International with bright sunny skies and comfortable temperatures.
For more on the festival forecast click here.
Looking ahead to next week we will be in a typical late Spring pattern with partly cloudy skies each afternoon and warm temperatures in the mid 80s.
Also, a steady southerly breeze will be around pushing Gulf moisture over Acadiana leading to the slight chance for a stray shower each afternoon but rain chances only look to be about 20%.
The next chance for widespread showers might not be until the following weekend.