Dry Wednesday before storms arrive Thursday

Posted at 4:32 PM, Apr 23, 2019
and last updated 2019-04-23 23:47:28-04

We will run the stretch of nice weather in Acadiana to 5 days on Wednesday although it will be rather cloudy with seasonable temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Near average highs for Louisiana on Wednesday


Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning our next low pressure system will begin to move out of south Texas and head for Acadiana.

Models are still having trouble pinpointing the timing but it does look like showers and storms will begin near 3-4 AM for western Acadiana and then slowly march to east before clearing the region in the afternoon between 3-5 PM.

Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday morning/afternoon


What is making this forecast tricky is that the system has not developed yet and until the low actually fires up the models will have a hard time nailing down the forecast.

That said when the system does develop the models agree that a few storms could be on the strong to severe side as they push through Acadiana.

Thus, the Storm Prediction Center has areas to the west of Lafayette under a marginal risk (5%) for damaging winds and small hail but as the storms push east and have time to tap into the heating of the day there is a little better chance for the storms to become severe which is why parishes to the east and south of Lafayette over to New Orleans have a slight risk (15%) to see severe weather.

Low end threat for severe weather on Thursday


Also, like the last couple rain makers this system will have the chance to produce heavy showers leading to flash flooding in some locations that could see potentially 3-4 inches but for most of us we will get a good soaking of 1-3 inches of rain.

Projected rainfall amounts for Thursday storm system.


The good news is the rains should push to the east of Lafayette by 3-5 pm so things should begin drying out and be okay for those wanting to head out to Festival Thursday evening.

Then behind this system we are looking at another fantastic stretch of weather meaning it should be just about perfect for Festival this weekend.

Friday night expect mostly clear conditions with temperatures in the 70s.

Then for Saturday and Sunday we should have bright sunny skies with highs a little on the warm side in the low to mid 80s.

While you are out enjoying the amazing music and food at Festival this weekend just remember the sunscreen and to mix in water to stay properly hydrated.