Milder later this week; wilder weather swings this weekend and beyond

Posted at 5:44 PM, Jan 14, 2019
and last updated 2019-01-14 23:49:06-05

After a chilly, and cloudy start for Acadiana Tuesday, a return of mostly sunny skies will help readings get into the more comfortable mid-50s for the afternoon.

And with light winds, it will feel substantially warmer than our Monday.

Temperatures should easily reach the mid-50s Tuesday with more afternoon sun.

Clouds will be back on the increase into Wednesday in response to an increasingly more active sub-tropical jet stream. A slow moderating temperature trend is also anticipated.

Highs Wednesday should reach the lower 60s as sun yields to high clouds later in the day.

A few disturbances within the sub-tropical jet stream may allow for a few scattered showers Wednesday night into Thursday with a stalling front just north of the area into Friday keeping the threat of scattered showers with us.

Acadiana’s next “significant” weather-maker in the form of a storm system and trailing front will arrive Saturday bringing an excellent chance of showers and a few embedded stronger thunderstorms.

For now it appears that the showers and storms Saturday should stay below severe thresholds, but there could be a marginal risk of a few severe storms.

Due to the progressive nature of the storm system Saturday rainfall amounts should be generally an inch or less…we’ll have a better feel for storm intensity and rainfall amounts later this week.

A return of spring-like temperatures is expected briefly later this week as they rise into the lower 70s Thursday and Friday, and may be near there again early Saturday, but sharply colder air will follow Saturday night into Sunday.

In fact, Acadiana could see its coldest temperatures of the season Sunday into Sunday night/Monday morning.

European Model Temperatures Monday Morning…Remember just one model…most other models are not quite as cold.

Temperatures Sunday may struggle to get out of the 30s into the lower 40s and there looks to be a significant wind chill in spite of sunny skies returning to the area Sunday afternoon.

Per the long-range models, the coldest readings will likely arrive for Monday morning with temperatures pushing a hard freeze in spots, in the mid-20s…while the Euro is even colder (see above).

The cold chill will last for about 36 hours before a quick moderating trend mid-next week, but there will likely be several more storm systems beyond the 10 Day Forecast that could yield more cold air down the road.

There are no indications of any winter weather events for our area at this time, but once we start tapping more arctic air in the 5-7 day into the two week period, there will at least be a window or two of opportunities….we’ll see!