UPDATE: The 10 am advisory sees the formation of Tropical Storm Barry in the Gulf of Mexico.
The track is unchanged from this morning. Still expecting a hurricane at landfall. Winds are now up to 40 mph and models should start to look a little more consistent now, not a major change with the track.
The 7am advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone #2 has arrived, and the track has pushed slightly eastward this morning. This would bring a "Hurricane Barry" onshore near St. Mary Parish sometime Saturday afternoon. A hurricane WATCH remains in effect for the entire coast of Louisiana and a Storm Surge WATCH is in effect for Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia, and St. Mary parishes in Acadiana. Those watches also remain in place for southeastern Louisiana. We still haven't seen much organization overnight so there's been no upgrade to the storm so far. The National Hurricane Center believes this will become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today.
The models are still clustering over Louisiana. The forecast calls for tremendous amounts of rainfall. Most of the region can expect a good 6-12 inches of rainfall with greater amounts over localized areas. These rains would start Friday and linger through Monday, with scattered storms hanging around through Tuesday. This would bring the potential for flooding over the region. Winds of hurricane force should be confined to the offshore waters and the immediate coastline, but much of the eastern half of Acadiana will see tropical storm force winds that will exceed 40mph.
Storm surges of 4-6 feet are likely for our coastal parishes which can also cause flooding along inland bayous, canals and waterways. The coastal areas can start to expect higher than normal tides starting Friday. Some roadways, especially over Cameron Parish could experience flooding starting tomorrow.