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Heat Advisory-Tropics Could Get Active

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Posted at 4:00 AM, Jul 08, 2019
and last updated 2019-07-08 08:09:45-04

Very hot weather will continue for the early part of the week. A large section of Acadiana is still under a heat advisory today as highs will reach the upper 90s and heat index values will approach 110. There will be a slight chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm later in the day. Temperatures will stay in the mid 90s through Wednesday with triple digit heat indices. Rain chances will be increasing toward the end of the week as tropical moisture starts to move in.

The buzz this weekend has been, "What's happening in the Gulf?" The answer right now is, "nothing". But, a weak low pressure area over the southern Appalachians is forecast to drift southward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. Warm waters, and somewhat favorable upper level conditions exist in the area, so tropical weather forming from this seems pretty likely now. The National Hurricane Center giving the system a 80% chance for development over the next five days.

The main question, if this actually develops, where will it go, and how strong will it be? The European Model seems to be pretty confident with this strengthening into a Tropical Storm and drifting westward, then northerly toward Louisiana. This would favor a heavy rain event for Acadiana and many areas eastward to Florida. The Euro also deepens the low enough that we would have decent winds with this system.

The GFS meanwhile, develops the low much more slowly, and keeps it rather weak as it drifts westward across the central Gulf of Mexico toward Texas. This would also favor a heavy rain event here at home, but with less wind. This will be monitored much of the week, so now is a good time to check on your personal preparedness.