Tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches will be possible for portions of the Northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the odds of a tropical system developing to 90% Tuesday evening.
While the disturbance in the Gulf remained poorly organized Tuesday night, there are all signs that the NHC may initiate "Potential Tropical Cyclone" advisories even if no definitive tropical depression center is identified Wednesday.
Simultaneous to initiating advisories on the system and an official storm track, tropical storm and storm surge watches will likely be issued for portions of the Gulf Coast, including portions of Louisiana, and the possibility of a hurricane watch is also in the mix given the late Tuesday computer model runs.
For now the short term high resolution models Indicate a system approaching the Louisiana Coast by Friday with a landfall anytime from Friday night through Saturday afternoon/evening.
The best we can do now is stay aware of the latest forecasts and be prepared for the possibility tropical storm conditions for portions of our area just in case, and hope it's all for naught, and also that the system is not stronger than anticipated at landfall.
While the primary threat from this system will be rainfall, with up to double the amounts possible in isolated areas given the Weather Prediction Center's (WPC) forecast, wind and surge could ultimately become larger factors to deal with.
A forecast of landfall anywhere from Lake Charles to New Orleans has equal weight roughly 72 hours out this point...and even the Upper Texas Coast remains in play.
And an Upper Texas Coast landfall still keeps flooding rains and storm surge as significant risks for portions of the Acadiana area.