The potential tropical system in the Northern Gulf of Mexico appeared to be getting organized Wednesday evening with a burst of convection near and to the southwest of the center of the system as identified by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) .
Potential Tropical Cyclone 2 was very close to becoming a tropical depression as of the 10pm Wednesday forecast advisory.
The system is still expected to gradually become a tropical storm Thursday with an initial southwestward motion turning westerly Thursday and then northwesterly toward the Acadiana Coast Friday into Saturday.
The latest track has been nudge a little farther to the east, following latest computer model guidance and is extremely close to the earlier European Model.
The system will be called "Barry" once a tropical storm circulation is identified.
Probablity of of moderate tropical storm and hurricane force winds...these numbers will likely increase as the sysetm gets closer.
The storm is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane prior to landfall...but could be stronger or weaker by one category...so keep that in mind.
All hurricane hazards will be possible anywhere in Acadiana starting Friday night and continuing for the entire day Saturday with only a slow improvement overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. See the latest forecast timeline and severity levels below:
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for most of Southern Louisiana from Cameron to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, including the Acadiana Parishes of Eastern Cameron, Vermilion, Iberia and St Mary Parishes...meaning hurricane conditions may occur in the watch area within 48 hours (starting Friday evening).
Latest European Model data illustrates the possibility of flooding rains anywhere from Acadiana on eastward into Eastern Louisiana with a swath of 15-25" of rain possible along and east of the center of the storm.
The rain total values at any specific location are not an official forecast, so it's most important to note there will be the threat of intense flooding rains for a 24-36 hour period, somewhere in Louisiana and/or Acadiana provided the track does not vary a whole lot before landfall. But there will be shifts in the heavy rain axis east and/or west, or both directions over the next couple of days.
For now, plan on at least 5-15 inches of rain.
In addition to the major flood threat, tropical storm winds and hurricane force gusts 75 mph or greater will be possible during the height of storm, which is currently set for Saturday...the data supplied by the European Model is just a rough guide for now...but again, there may be some big changes depending on final intensity and track.
There will also likely be a significant storm surge inundating the extreme coastal areas of Acadiana per the latest storm surge images below...these inundation maps may change greatly based on future changes in track and intensity but hopefully they will be a useful guide for those with coastal interests.
inundations of up to 3-6 feet will be possible primarily in areas near or surrounded by marsh land.