Remaining breezy & warm with increasing rain chances mid-week - KATC.com | Continuous News Coverage | Acadiana-Lafayette

Remaining breezy & warm with increasing rain chances mid-week

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Acadiana's weather pattern will remain rather breezy and warm with plenty of early season tropical humidity (and moisture) eventually adding up to increasing rain chances by Wednesday.

Tuesday should be similar to our Monday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies, breezy and warm conditions with plenty of intervals of afternoon sun pushing the high temperatures into the lower 80s.

There will be a slight chance of an isolated shower or storm Tuesday afternoon, but rain chances should be 20% or less.

The battle line across the lower 48 will be drawn later this week between cold air in the west and northwest and warm and humid air over the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

This will set the stage for a series of disturbances along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that will be draped from the ArkLaTex region northeastward through the Midwest.

This frontal zone will make a push eastward toward Louisiana Wednesday allowing for a good chance of showers and storms that may persist into Thursday.

Fortunately for Acadiana, the main storm dynamics and heaviest rain threats this week should remain well to our north and west.

Look for highest rain chances, near 70% on Wednesday, with chances lowering a bit until the front makes a stronger run for our area this weekend.

Rain totals through Thursday should be no more than the 1-2" range for Acadiana with significantly higher amounts possible starting from Central Louisiana on northwestward.

The RPM, GFS and European Models all point to a widespread heavy rain, possible flooding event(s) from Northeast Texas into the Midwest with the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) calling for widespread amounts over the next week of 5-7" plus in these areas.

Typically, isolated rainfall amounts in this set-up can be double the forecasted amounts, so some serious flooding could be possible in portions of the nation's mid-section before the week is done.

No organized severe is expected in the Acadiana area through the end of this week, but there could be a few strong storms in the area by late Wednesday.

And when the frontal zone makes another push toward the region Saturday or Saturday night, there may be some improved atmospheric elements that could produce severe storms locally...stay tuned.

It should get slightly cooler and briefly drier Sunday, but the frontal zone will be "waffling" across the area early next week which will keep plenty of clouds and rain chances with us for a while longer, at least though mid-next week. 

Statistically interesting climate notes: New Iberia set a new record high temperature on this date in successive years! 82F today beat 81F set just last year!  Normal highs this time of year should be in the mid-upper 60s while night-time lows should be in the mid-upper 40s.


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