Cloudy and cool conditions will persist into the weekend for Acadiana with the chance of rain increasing Saturday afternoon into the evening, and continuing through the overnight hours.
Atmospheric moisture will increase across the Bayou State Saturday, as an upper level disturbance approaches from the west-northwest Saturday evening.
Combining these features with a more favorable jet-stream pattern, and an increase atmospheric ascent or lift, will all allow for periods of rain to develop from the west to east during the latter part of Saturday afternoon.
Rain chances will be near 60% by late Saturday afternoon, and likely increase to near 80-90% Saturday night, when dynamics will be at their best for producing rain.
So if you are planning on attending the Krewe of Rio Parade Saturday evening, packing in the rain gear should be an essential.
A few rumbles of thunder may be possible Saturday night, but no severe weather threats will materialize.
Rain totals across the area will likely range in the .50" to 1" range with isolated spots perhaps receiving more.
Most of the computer models agree with the Weather Prediction Center's Forecast (WPC), but it should be noted however, that almost every weather system this winter has outperformed model and human forecasts...so a little more rain would not be surprising.
But due to the progressive nature of this weekend's weather system, there should be no flood threats.
Rains will end pre-dawn hours most areas Sunday, with clouds lingering but possibly clearing a little, later Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures this weekend will start in the low-mid 40s in most spots early Saturday, rising into the low to mid-50s Saturday afternoon as southeasterly winds kick in.
Temperatures will stay steady or possibly rise Saturday night into Sunday morning into the mid-upper 50s, with readings Sunday afternoon ranging in the mid-upper 60s.
It could be cooler than forecast Sunday if clouds linger into the afternoon, and if it clears out earlier than expected, 70F would not be surprising prior to a dry, cool front that arrives Sunday evening/night.
After a mostly sunny and pleasant Monday, showers and storms will be on the upswing again starting late Tuesday, continuing into Wednesday and ending early Thursday. The area may see a few inches of rain with the mid-week system.
Temperatures should warm back into the lower 70s through Wednesday, before cooling again later in the week.
The longer range outlook going into Mardi Gras weekend has flipped and flopped over the last few days, as the 8-12 period will invariably do.
Today's models indicate the chance of rain Saturday, a cool and drier Sunday, with plenty of clouds and perhaps some rain chances into Mardi Gras...but take this forecast for now, with a grain of salt...it will very likely change.?