A solid shield of heavy rainfall will develop across Acadiana through Saturday morning with rainfall totals of 2-4" likely, along with some isolated spots receiving more somewhere in South Louisiana.
KATC's RPM FutureCast shows the complexities of inverted Gulf trough advancing inland across the region as upper level diffluence & divergence develops Saturday, which translates to good atmospheric breathing for the rains and embedded storms.
Atmospheric moisture levels will increase dramatically to from the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday morning, with levels reaching the 99th percentile for the area given the time of the year.
In addition, there will be atmospheric ascent (rising motion) that will all lead to efficient rain processes across the region.
The bottom line, expect soaking rains of 2-4" Acadiana-wide, with isolated spots possibly seeing up to 5-6" might be possible.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the European, NAM, GFS and KATC's RPM FutureCast models all agree on the potential for at least 3-5" across the region so there could be certainly the threat of street flooding, and some high water areas, when the heaviest rains will be falling.
12KM RPM Model:
4KM RPM Model:
Remember, all of the above images are model projections, what actually happens in the atmosphere can be much different, with some areas seeing more than projected and others seeing less.
Right now, it appears that widespread serious flooding is not anticipated, but low-lying areas should monitor the radar trends and stay with KATC, katc.com and KATC social media platforms for the latest Saturday.
The WPC also has a good part of the region under a slight risk of excessive rainfall, and confirms the possibility of isolated areas in the outlook area possibly receiving up to 4-6".
Prime-time for the heaviest activity looks to be mainly during the morning hours of Saturday from 3-5 am through noon, but moderate rains could continue into the afternoon hours, but should generally be tapering from the west to east into Saturday evening.
Lingering clouds, breezy and seasonably cool weather is anticipated for Sunday, with cool sunshine on the way for early next week.
Temperatures this weekend won't vary much, with lows Saturday morning in the mid-upper 50s while temperatures hover near the same levels into the lower 60s through Saturday evening, dropping into the mid-50s Sunday morning and rising to near 60 for the afternoon.
Chillier conditions, especially at night, are anticipated early next week with lows dropping into the mid-upper 30s.
It will get briefly milder Wednesday into Thursday but chillier and unsettled conditions should return Friday into the following weekend.