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Klotzbach issues hurricane forecast update as peak of season app - KATC.com | Continuous News Coverage | Acadiana-Lafayette

Klotzbach issues hurricane forecast update as peak of season approaches

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Colorado State hurricane forecaster, Dr. Phillip Klotzbach, issued his early August forecast update for the rest of the Atlantic season Friday, maintaining an active seasonal forecast.

The energetic season is expected mainly due to neutral El Nino conditions, and above normal ocean temperatures anticipated to persist in the main development regions for storms.

The forecast includes a total of 16 named storms (5 tropical storms have formed to date)...12 is normal over the last 30 years, 8 hurricanes with 6.5 being normal, of which 3 are expected to become major, Category 3 or higher storms.

In the Atlantic Basin, 84% of all tropical storms, 92% of hurricanes, and 95% of major storms, occur after August 1st.

Klotzbach goes on to say, "The probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is above-normal due to the forecast for an above-average season." 

He adds, "As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Specifically for Louisiana, the risk of a hurricane striking somewhere along our coast this year is near 38%, with the long-term average being 30%, while the odds of a major hurricane striking the coast is 15%...normal is 12%.

Tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin dramatically ramps up for the mid- to latter part of August through all of September into the first weeks of October, before dropping precipitously thereafter. 

Outside of Hurricane Audrey in 1957, Louisiana's biggest and most powerful storms have come during the last week of August through the first week of October.

And with a couple of disturbances currently brewing in the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic, now is a good time to garner your hurricane supplies and establish a plan for your home, family, pets and most especially, "special needs" residents. 

An excellent resource for Louisiana hurricane planning, evacuation, sheltering and mitigation can be found at the Department of Homeland Security.

Also, stay with KATC "on-air" for the latest on developments of future systems, online at KATC's Hurricane Center, with the same available for your smart phone through the "KATC" news and "KATC WX" apps. 

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