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Tropical cyclone likely in Gulf by Monday or Tuesday but there are still lots of questions

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As of Sunday afternoon the system in the Gulf of Honduras, just to the East of the Yucatan Peninsula, is still relatively unorganized around a board area of circulation.

The system is expected to move north traveling right along or briefly passing over the Yucatan before emerging into the southern Gulf of Mexico sometime Monday afternoon.

Once it enters the Gulf of Mexico conditions look more favorable for the system to become better organized and develop into a tropical cyclone.

If it does develop and strengthen into a tropical storm then it would be called Bret or Cindy, depending on if it can form before the other system in Atlantic Ocean becomes a named storm.

The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance for tropical formation in the next 5 days.

If you take a look at the spaghetti plots for this system there is still a lot of uncertainty of the track once it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Basically the entire Gulf coast, from the southern tip of Texas to the panhandle of Florida, needs to monitor this system for potential landfall.

This relatively large area of uncertainty will remain until the system comes together and we find out where exactly the main area of circulation will form.

That said, the latest models today are beginning to show more consistency with one another on the location of where this circulation might form and track of where it will go.

The Euro, NAM, and RPM models are in agreement that the system will slowly make it ways through the Gulf of Mexico tracking off to the NW and come onshore along the Texas coast.

Going with this thinking a system that tracks towards the Texas coast will mean a heavy rain event for Acadiana for the second half of the work week.

As long as this system stays offshore and is located to the SW of Acadiana the counter clockwise flow around the center of circulation will push heavy rain bands over Acadiana Wednesday through Friday.

Looking at the projected rainfall totals on the Euro model for next week it shows about 2-4 inches of rain possible for Acadiana but you notice the higher amounts to the East towards New Orleans of 6+ inches of rain.

I believe that hot spot could shift to the west and move over top Acadiana especially if the models are right and the system ends up heading towards the Texas coast.

Therefore, I think Acadiana has a high probably of seeing a heavy rain event of 5"-8+" of inches, with some areas capable of receiving over a foot of rain, if one or two tropical bands trains over the same locations.

If this happens flooding could be a big issue for Acadiana.

Another potential threat for Acadiana is the slight risk for damaging winds near 50-60mph which could knock down trees and power lines, especially once the ground becomes saturated from the heavy rains.

Finally, this system could cause minor problems along the coast where seas waters could rise 3-5 feet above normal levels creating minor flood issues for people that live along the Gulf and Vermilion Bay.

Thus, with all the uncertainty that still exists with this potential system continue to stay with KATC in the coming days for the latest on this developing system. 

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