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Pleasant Father's Day & tropical update - KATC.com | Continuous News Coverage | Acadiana-Lafayette

Pleasant Father's Day & tropical update

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Mother Nature is blessing all the dads in Acadiana with a nice Father's Day forecast as temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s under partly sunny skies as High pressure remains locked in the Gulf of Mexico suppressing an widespread rain chances for Acadiana.

However, there is still the slim summertime rain chance around 10-20% for a stray shower Sunday afternoon as we continue to have a rather humid air mass over the region.

Monday should be dry with a mix of sun and clouds and temperatures a little warmer in the upper 80s to near 90. 

Monday evening a front will be dropping down out of the Missouri Valley into northern Louisiana sparking off showers up towards Monroe and Shreveport however that system could send Acadiana an outflow boundary producing some scattered showers.

Beyond Monday the forecast is still up in the air as we wait to see what happens in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of Saturday afternoon we are still watching a broad area of unorganized showers in the Gulf of Honduras.

Sunday into Monday the shower activity is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula and remain fairly unorganized as the National Hurricane Center has just a 30% chance for something to develop in the next 48 hours.

However, once the system moves back over water in the southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche area Monday evening there is strong possibility(80%) the system will become better organized and become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm.

After Monday that is where the models go all over the place.

The GFS model wants to take the track of the potential system towards the Gulf Shores area with the majority of the shower activity staying over Alabama, Georgia and Florida.

The MOS and RPM models have the tropical system lifting up into the Gulf of Mexico directing south of Louisiana producing a decent chance for tropical moisture to move over Acadiana.

While the Euro keeps the possible tropical cyclone way to the south in the Gulf of Mexico and has it coming onshore near Brownsville, Texas.

The thing that is making this forecast tricky is the aforementioned front that will be dropping down into the Southeast on Tuesday.

If that front can continue to move south and out into the Gulf of Mexico it will block the tropical system from heading our way and push it more to the East towards Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

However, if that front stalls out or dissipates as it tries to work south through Louisiana then there will be nothing to block the system and it could go anywhere.

Thus with a large amount of uncertainty it is still way to early to know what actually we can expect here in Acadiana for the second half of next week.

Once the system does form by Tuesday afternoon we should have a better idea of how the system will behave and where exactly it will want to go.

Until then enjoy your the rest of this nice Father's day weekend and then check back with KATC for the latest on this potential system in the Gulf.  

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