Posted: Aug 14, 2013 3:52 PM by Daniel Phillips
Updated: Aug 14, 2013 5:09 PM
We are getting in to the heart of hurricane season, and like clockwork we are getting an increase in tropical activity. The area of greatest concern currently is a tropical wave sitting off the coast of Honduras that is showing favorable conditions to develop further into a tropical storm.
The forecast will become more clear over the next day or two, but models are indicating a good possibility of the system moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico. Different model runs have struggled with the system, and how it will act over the next few days.
The front that moved through on Wednesday will be a big factor on how this system will respond. Depending on how much dry air moves in over Louisiana, it could provide a buffer against the storm; so we will be paying close attention to moisture content in the atmosphere on Thursday.
Regardless of whether or not it becomes an official named system a good deal of moisture will make its way into the gulf and provide heavy rainfall from eastern Louisiana all the way to the Florida Panhandle this weekend.
Remember the forecast is an ever evolving thing, and there will be a lot of tweaking the forecast so make sure you stay tuned for the latest information. If tropical development does occur the name of the storm will be either Erin or Fernand. The reason we are unsure of what it will be named is there is currently another system off the coast of Africa that may develop into a named storm just before the other. Obviously the winner of this race will get the name Erin, the other Fernand. Like I said the tropics are becoming more active.