Posted: Aug 3, 2012 7:40 AM by Natalie Noah
Updated: Aug 3, 2012 3:32 PM
TS Ernesto has not become better organized over the last several hours as cloud tops have warmed and shrunk around the center. Currently winds of 45mph, gust up to 60mph and activity is moving across the Windward Islands. The rapid westward motion is resulting in shear that continues to lessen intensification. Only slight intensification is expected over the next day or so. Conditions will become more favorable for organization as shear decreases while Ernesto moves over the warm waters of the Caribbean. Land interaction could allow challenges for Ernesto's development near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, yet still a little too early to determine.
The next couple days Ernesto should continue on a westward track as a ridge holds to the north. After that...a weakness in the ridge which could result in a slower WNW motion by Monday/Tuesday. Divergence in models around this time. Keep it with KATC-TV and visit katc.com for the latest on local conditions and the tropics.
Elsewhere across the Atlantic...watching a new well defined developed low pressure area with a tropical wave which is located about 175 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands...off the African western coast. Some gradual development is possible over the next several days. Activity is moving WNW at 10-15mph.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms over the central and NW Bahamas. Strong upper-level winds likely to prevent significant development, yet we will still monitor. Moving NW at 5-10mph.