Posted: Jun 21, 2012 3:12 PM by Rob Perillo
Updated: Jun 25, 2012 10:46 AM
An area of disturbed weather in the Northwestern Caribbean coupled with a weak surface low near the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to become more organized over the next few days as the system drifts northward into the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center was indicating a 50% of tropical cyclone development through Saturday with odds of development likely to improve with more favorable upper winds possibly developing into the weekend.
A named system will be possible with next storm name "Debby" on the list for 2012.
While computer models continue to offer varied solutions it appears that this system will drift into the central Gulf with modest strengthening over the next 48-72 hours, possibly becoming nearly stationary for a day or two and then drift northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula.
Development or not, the threat of flooding rains will be likely across a good part of Florida from the Coastal Bend southward through the Keys over the next 3-5 days.
Strengthening high pressure across Texas and Louisiana this weekend should keep this system from posing a direct threat to Acadiana, but any slow-moving tropical system in the Gulf should always garner attention.
Conditions offshore obviously may get rough, especially over Southeast Louisiana deep water areas, along with increasing coastal tides through the weekend. In addition, with high pressure to the north combined with low pressure festering in the Gulf, breezy conditions can be expected inland across Acadiana through the weekend.
As high pressure strengthens Acadiana can also expect temperatures to soar in the mid-90s this weekend and perhaps upper 90s early next week. Rain chances should remain scant but a few tropical showers swirling around the Gulf circulation may be possible but not likely this weekend into early next week.
Stay with KATC for the latest on this developing system.