Tropical Scenarios in the Gulf this Weekend

Posted: Jun 22, 2012 6:18 PM by Rob Perillo
Updated: Jun 25, 2012 10:47 AM

A disturbance by the tip of the Yucatan late Friday will likely slowly develop this weekend as it drifts northward. A building ridge of high pressure over the Arklatex this weekend should block this system from Louisiana through Sunday, but the question remains if the high will stay anchored or drift to the west or east.

Most computer models show modest strengthening of a tropical low in the Gulf as it drifts northward through Sunday. A tropical depression could form at any time while the system has the potential to become a tropical storm by Sunday. If so the next named system will be "Debby".

While it remains difficult at best to interpret computer models of a developing system, the initial tropical models remain in two camps: the first set show a weak to moderate tropical storm drifting northward through the weekend and then northeastward toward the coastal bend of Florida Monday/Tuesday of next week...

The other set of more "traditional" tropical models show a system becoming nearly stationary just southeast of the Louisiana coast early next week with a slow westward drift toward the Texas Coast for mid-late next week.

These solutions will be dependant on the location of the aforementioned ridge of high pressure close to Louisiana and on whether a weakness in the ridge toward Florida and the SE U.S. will be inviting enough for the system to move northeastward.

Interestingly enough our in-house RPM/FutureCast model is currently pointing to a more westward solution with a moderately strong tropical storm (or something stronger) skirting from east to west just south of the Louisiana Coastline.

The "outlier" Canadian model points to much the same with a westward movement toward Texas and does strengthen this system to a hurricane.

The well respected Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab model, or "GFDL" late Friday also turns this system westward after 48 hours but has the storm dissipating between 72-78 hours out.

Obviously our weather forecast will be highly dependant on the future track and intensity of this system with a very, hot breezy forecast through early next week to tropical showers and stronger winds developing early-mid next week.

In addition to more weather inland, if the system does take a more westward trek, coastal flooding and storm surges would come into play along Acadiana's coast.

Offshore interests in the Gulf can expect close to tropical storm conditions developing from offshore the Southeast Louisiana Coastline eastward through Florida Coastal Bend Sunday through Tuesday with winds increasing to 30-40kts or higher along with seas building 8-15ft.

At the very least minor coastal flooding will be likely for the Eastern Louisiana Parishes starting Sunday with tides increasing to 2-4ft above normal.

There will likely be changes to the forecast so the bottom line is to stay informed this weekend as there will likely be a tropical storm in the Gulf with possible impacts on portions our area early-mid next week.

Below are the tropical model plots through Monday...