Tracking the Tropics

Jun 20, 2012 4:24 PM by Rob Perillo

Tropical Disturbance Heading Toward Gulf

A disorganized tropical disturbance in the Northwestern Caribbean is expected to drift into the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week with some slow development possible this weekend.

As of late Wednesday evening the National Hurricane Center was indicating that there is a 30% chance of tropical storm development within the next 48 hours, but it is quite conceivable that the probability of development will increase over the next few days.

At the very least this system has favorable tropical depression potential with a named tropical storm quite possible by this weekend, especially if upper winds continue to become more conducive.

Computer models continue to suggest that this system may meander in the Gulf through the weekend and perhaps into early next week as developing high pressure over the Southern Plains will limit the system from advancing northward. 

A deep tropical moisture plume from this system should get sheared to the northeast toward Florida keeping much of the Sunshine State on the wet side through this weekend with increasing chances of soaking/flooding rains closer to the southern Florida Peninsula.

At this point this system does not pose a direct threat to Acadiana, but the combination of high pressure to the north and weak low pressure festering in the Gulf will likely insure breezy daytime conditions across the area, and choppy conditions offshore.

Long-range models are generally suggesting that this system will eventually get drawn toward Florida and then to the northeast by early next week.  The "Canadian Model today, which is the "outlier" model, meaning its by itself in its solution, does indicate a much more robust system very close to Louisiana by the end of this weekend.

At the very least, offshore/marine interests in the Gulf of Mexico will need to monitor this system closely over the next several days.












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