Dec 24, 2012 6:42 PM by Rob Perillo
The Storm Prediction Center upgraded the risk of severe weather for much of Louisiana into Mississippi for Christmas Day into the "moderate" category. This means that there will be a higher risk of severe storms in the area producing damaging winds and the possibility of long-lived/long-tracked damaging tornadoes.
For Acadiana, the greatest risk of severe weather will be along and north of the I-10 parishes.
There will be two distinct periods for severe weather in the area. The first will come likely overnight through the pre-dawn ours of Christmas as a warm front surges northward. Storms that develop will be capable of producing hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated tornadoes.
During Christmas Day the second opportunity for severe weather will develop for the latter part of the morning into the afternoon hours as low pressure develops in Texas and then advances northeastward through North-Central Louisiana.
Wind dynamics aloft will support a greater threat of storms containing "bow-echoes" or damaging winds in excess of 65mph. In addition, some storms will be rotating allowing for the possibility of tornadoes along the squall line that develops across the area Christmas afternoon, and with any individual "discrete" cells that develop ahead of the squall.
The Weather Lab expects "tornado watches" to be issued for portions of Acadiana prior to dawn, with watches likely to cover all of the area Christmas Day.
This severe weather system will advance quickly through the area with winter temperatures returning to Acadiana for a couple of days before the next chance of rain Friday. Friday's weather system should not be severe.
It should stay cold to chilly next weekend through New Year's Day.