Dec 19, 2013 5:30 PM by Rob Perillo

Severe Weather Risk Saturday/Saturday Night

The Storm Prediction Center has put all of Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms Saturday into Saturday night as a strong storm system rolls out of the Desert Southwest into Texas.

The main severe weather threat will be storms that may be capable of damaging winds and perhaps isolated tornadoes.  The greatest risk for severe weather will likely be from Eastern Texas through Central Louisiana into Northern & Central Mississippi.

The severe weather parameters should be fairly impressive for the area/Acadiana with the exception of an atmospheric "cap" that could erode with time into Saturday night.

Wind dynamics aloft will be quite strong (with a 60mph low level jet at 3,000-5000ft) so any strong/severe storms could produce damaging winds...and depending on surface dew points among a few other factors, there could be a tornado potential, especially in the north-central part of the state going into Saturday evening.

Mitigating factors for severe weather this weekend will be that the strongest storms may come at night, when it's harder for storms to "root" at the surface, thanks to more stable Gulf of Mexico air...this means that most of the nasty wind dynamics will be aloft and perhaps not reaching the ground.

Nonetheless, there may be some sort of severe weather watch (severe thunderstorm or tornado watch) for portions of Acadiana Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Fortunately the larger storm system itself should be weaker and pulling away from Acadiana through the overnight hours.

Windy conditions Saturday will let us all know that something will be up for later in the day and into the evening hours with gusts ahead and away from any storms possibly over 30mph.

Look for scattered storms Saturday afternoon, some of which could be rotating, then more than likely, an organized squall line into Saturday night.

It appears that the severe storm threat will end in Acadiana, and more than likely in the New Orleans area, prior to daybreak Sunday.

Lingering clouds and intervals of sun will be possible Sunday/Monday as we cool back down.

Christmas Eve and Day look nice and cool with highs in the 50s to lower 60s while frosty conditions can be expected for Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.


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